5 favorites to win the NCAA tournament

Don't overthink it.

Dating back to 1979, a No. 1 seed has won the NCAA tournament 23 times. In fact, a team seeded lower than No. 4 has gone on to win the national championship on only four occasions - and just once since 1985.

For the most part, the elite talent rises to the top - and you can't be blamed for going chalk with your championship pick this year.

Here are the five favorites to win it all:

(1) Villanova, East region

Villanova is the Vegas favorite, and for good reason. The Wildcats have struck a harmonious balance between dependable collegiate veterans and raw talent, boasting the nation's top offense, and a defense that certainly won't roll over.

Junior guard Mikal Bridges will likely be a late lottery pick in this summer's NBA draft, with fellow junior Jalen Brunson trending toward a second-round selection. Both have been through the gauntlet of March Madness, contributing to Nova's 2016 national championship as freshmen; they will be looking to cement their legacies - and draft stock - before potentially leaving the collegiate ranks.

Villanova only suffered four losses this season, and avenged two of them with statement games: a veritable curb-stomping of Butler by 19 in the Big East semifinal, and then beating Providence by 10 in overtime the very next day to clinch the conference crown at Madison Square Garden. Jay Wright's team is battle-tested and firing on all cylinders.

(1) Virginia, South region

Virginia is the yin to Villanova's yang: America's top defense paired with a capable offense. Sure, the Cavaliers only scored 67.5 points per game this season - 309th in the country - but when you intentionally play at a snail's pace and only have to clear 53.4 points per game allowed on the defensive end, there's little need to run up the score.

The stinginess of coach Tony Bennett's pack-line defense wasn't only reserved for middling opponents, either. Among some of Virginia's most notable outings against teams that made the tournament, they held two-seed North Carolina to 49 points, 11-seed Syracuse to 44, and five-seed Clemson to an eye-popping 36.

The "two" in the Cavaliers' 31-2 record includes a seven-point loss to West Virginia back on Dec. 5 and a one-point nail-biter to Virginia Tech on Feb. 10. For the superstitious, it may take yet another "V" team to derail national title hopes for Bennett's squad; if the regions go chalk, Virginia will meet Villanova in the Final Four.

(1) Xavier, West region

What Xavier lacks in big-name prospects they make up for with a bevy of ready-for-prime-time upperclassmen. Three-time All-Big East wing Trevon Bluiett continues to lead the way in his final collegiate season, averaging 19.5 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 2.5 assists per game while nailing 43.3 percent of his 3-pointers. Fellow seniors J.P. Macura and Kerem Kanter (brother of Knicks center Enes) are capable running mates.

All in all, KenPom tabs the Musketeers as boasting the seventh-best adjusted offense in the country - they can hang with anyone.

Since Chris Mack took over coaching duties in 2009-10, Xavier has advanced to at least the Sweet Sixteen in four out of seven tournament appearances, including their Elite Eight loss to Gonzaga last year. This could be the time they finally break through.

(1) Kansas, Midwest region

The Midwest - "The Region of Death" - is a minefield of talent, with top-seeded Kansas followed in close pursuit by two-seed Duke and three-seed Michigan State. The likes of Auburn, TCU, Danny Hurley's upstart Rhode Island squad, and Trae Young's Oklahoma also create plenty of intrigue.

Senior guard Devonte Graham, averaging 17.3 points, 7.5 assists, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.6 steals per game, is likely to play the entirety of every game. He has much to gain in terms of draft stock by an inspired run this March, as does guard Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk, who is averaging 15.1 points per game and shooting 45.3 percent on 3-point shots and is projected as a potential second-round pick.

There are no easy outs, but if Bill Self's Jayhawks can carry their momentum from the Big 12 conference tournament into March Madness and survive the crucible, they have as good a shot as any of cutting down the nets on April 2.

(2) Duke, Midwest region

The same big-picture caveats that face Kansas apply to the Blue Devils; if they can outlast the rest in the Midwest, don't count out coach Mike Krzyzewski and Co.

Obviously, 6-foot-11 freshman Marvin Bagley III is the main attraction, but it wouldn't be fair to say Duke's title aspirations are tied solely to the projected top NBA lottery pick. When Bagley logged just 10 minutes against Michigan State in the teams' November matchup, the Blue Devils still won by seven; on the other end of the spectrum, the team lost their ACC semifinal matchup against North Carolina despite Bagley dropping a 19-point, 13-rebound double-double.

Duke's advancement toward their sixth national championship has as much to do with how the players around Bagley - especially senior Grayson Allen - perform. Allen enters March Madness averaging 19.7 points, 4.4 assists, and 3.3 rebounds over his previous nine games; if he can maintain that production (and avoid starting a riot), Duke will boast one of the most idiosyncratic - but elite - one-two punches in recent college memory.

(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)