What the AAC lacks in scoring, it makes up for in elite athletes and dominant defensive squads. With tons of intrigue - and the champion set to be crowned just hours before Selection Sunday - the AAC Tournament should be a fun one.
Odds to win the AAC Tournament
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Houston | -200 |
| Wichita State | +250 |
| Memphis | +500 |
| SMU | +800 |
| Cincinnati | +3000 |
| Tulsa | +5000 |
| South Florida | +9000 |
| Central Florida | +10000 |
| East Carolina | +17500 |
| Temple | +20000 |
| Tulane | +25000 |
What's at stake?
Quite frankly, the AAC has not been at its peak this season. Perennial NCAA Tournament threat Cincinnati has struggled, jumpstart UCF is rebuilding, and none of the traditional bottom-feeders have stepped up.
Houston is the conference's only March Madness guarantee, with Wichita State likely getting a bid as well. Beyond those two, only Memphis and SMU have cases to make - and those cases aren't very strong right now.
All of this sets the AAC tourney up as a potential bid-stealer for bubble teams. If one of Houston or Wichita State doesn't triumph, a team praying for a spot in next week's tournament may be shut out; there may actually be more at stake for teams outside the AAC than for those within it.
Who's worth betting?
Conversations about a favorite in this conference start and end with Houston. Finishing the season eighth in the AP Poll, the Cougars rolled through their schedule en route to a sparkling 21-3 record. Despite losing starter Caleb Mills early in the campaign, this team is deep and skilled, and it rebounds better than almost any squad in the nation.
Wichita State surprisingly earned the tournament's top seed despite having fewer wins than Houston by virtue of a better conference winning percentage. The Shockers entered the season with lowered expectations after the departure of longstanding coach Gregg Marshall, but this feisty team has won seven straight, including a victory over Houston.
Beyond the two heavy favorites, Memphis and SMU are also worth deep looks. We'll discuss the Tigers later, but the Mustangs are an interesting case. They're 10-1 against teams ranked below them in KenPom's rankings this season but 1-3 against teams above them. Consider that stat - and the fact that SMU hasn't played in over a month due to COVID-19 protocols - and the allure starts to fade.
Can a long shot win?
Considering every team in the AAC not named Houston, Wichita State, Memphis, or SMU has a .500 record or worse, probably not. There's very minimal scoring ability throughout the bottom of the conference, and it would take a hot shooting night to upset one of the big hitters.
If there is one squad worth taking a flier on, it's probably Cincinnati and its program history. But the Bearcats have yet to come close to challenging the top two squads in the league, leaving them needing help from others to land an easier path to the championship.
Best bet
Memphis +500
The oddsmakers are treating Memphis like it's a clear tier below the AAC's top two squads. But after the Tigers beat Wichita State by 20 earlier this season and just recently lost to Houston on a miracle buzzer-beater, they're clearly capable of hanging with the big boys.
Unlike the Shockers and Cougars, however, Memphis needs to reach the AAC final to garner serious consideration on Selection Sunday. Ranked second in the nation in defensive efficiency by KenPom, the Tigers have a defense they can ride to a conference title.
Memphis only needs consistent scoring from its rotation players to truly have a shot in its conference tourney, though none of its players have scored double-figures in more than five consecutive games this season. The Tigers likely need at least one player to catch fire this week in Fort Worth, Texas, to bring home the AAC title and go dancing.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
