Death, taxes, and a low seed making the Sweet 16. Some things are just inevitable, and an underdog ruining a bracket is one of them.
Fear not, as we break down five squads of varying seeding that could make a splash in this year's tourney and destroy everyone's bracket but yours.
Florida State, 4-seed
Among teams seeded fourth or lower, Florida State might have the best shot at making the Elite Eight. The Seminoles have become predictable, but that doesn't necessarily spell doom. In their six losses, they've turned the ball over 36 times more than their opponent and made 58 fewer free throws. When they control fouls and limit turnovers, they usually win.
A first-round matchup with UNC Greensboro could pose a challenge, but the Spartans are 296th in the nation in free throws made. In the Round of 32, Colorado and Georgetown - their two potential opponents - don't rank in the top 100 in turnover or free-throw rate. Next up could be Michigan, a team known for its conservative approach, though an upset may be looming beforehand. (More on that below.) With Elite Eight talent and favorable matchups, don't count out this Florida State squad.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
USC, 6-seed
USC is in a challenging position, as due to facing the winner of Thursday's play-in game, its Round of 64 opponent is still undetermined. But whether it's undermanned Drake or struggling Wichita State, a win is likely for the Trojans in Round 1.
Three-seed Kansas and 2-seed Iowa would be USC's next two probable opponents, and both would have issues with the Trojans. The Jayhawks' David McCormack and the Hawkeyes' Luka Garza are elite post players and lead their respective teams in usage rate. However, the Trojans' second-ranked 2-point field-goal percentage defense - anchored by twin towers Evan and Isaiah Mobley - will cause major problems on the inside. USC will have to make shots to advance as an underdog, but it should have just enough scoring punch to get the job done.
Ceiling: Elite Eight
St. Bonaventure, 9-seed
In a way, being an 8- or 9-seed isn't an enviable position to be in come March. St. Bonaventure, fresh off an Atlantic 10 title, will have to beat SEC runner-up LSU and 1-seed Michigan just to see the Sweet 16.
Looking deeper though, the Bonnies might not be in such a bad spot. They match up very well with the Tigers, whose lack of size down low leaves them susceptible to St. Bonaventure's physical, downhill offensive attack. Plus, with capable defenders at all five positions, the Bonnies should be able to contain LSU's big three of Cameron Thomas, Javonte Smart, and Trendon Watford.
Should Michigan be their next opponent, the Bonnies are likely to catch a break with second-leading scorer Isaiah Livers potentially out for the tournament with a foot injury. Both teams play at a slow pace and rarely turn the ball over, which would lead to a tight game down the stretch. If Wolverines star Hunter Dickinson struggles against the 7-foot-8 wingspan of St. Bonaventure big man Osun Osunniyi, an upset could be in the cards.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
UC Santa Barbara, 12-seed
Arguably the best mid-major team outside of the A-10, WCC, Mountain West, and Missouri Valley, UC Santa Barbara won 18 of its last 19 games en route to a No. 12 seed and first-round matchup with Big East runner-up Creighton. Unlike most games between a 12- and 5-seed, it's the Gauchos that boast a size advantage up front, with 6-foot-9 Amadou Sow and 6-10 Miles Norris being a pair of ultra-talented, former four-star recruits manning the middle.
UC Santa Barbara trots out efficient, steady guards and maintains a mistake-free attack, which could slow the game down enough to neutralize Creighton's high-powered offense.
If the Gauchos can sneak past the Bluejays, they would see Virginia or Ohio in the Round of 32. With Virginia dealing with COVID-19 issues and unlikely to practice before the weekend, UC Santa Barbara could either face a shaky Cavaliers team or a fellow mid-major opponent in the Bobcats. If that's the case, we may see a 12-seed in the Sweet 16 for a second straight NCAA Tournament.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
North Texas, 13-seed
North Texas has been flying under the radar all season, but this senior-laden roster that was denied an NCAA tourney bid last year is back and determined to leave its mark. First-round opponent Purdue might be the perfect matchup for the Mean Green. Both teams play at a very slow pace, which could deny the Boilermakers' talent advantage from truly showing itself.
North Texas sports an elite 2-point defense, which will come in handy against Purdue's menacing big man duo of Trevion Williams - first nationally in percentage of team shots taken - and Zach Edey. In prior matchups against similarly physical bigs Derek Culver, Cameron Krutwig, and Charles Bassey, the Mean Green held them collectively to 35 points on 12-of-32 shooting.
If leading scorer Javion Hamlet can do enough to get his team past Purdue, the winner of Villanova-Winthrop awaits. Similar to UC Santa Barbara's situation, North Texas' opponent would either be a Wildcats squad missing lead initiator Collin Gillespie or another mid-major in the Eagles. The Mean Green won't win a tourney game by outscoring an opponent but can neutralize its skill by playing a slow and scrappy game.
Ceiling: Sweet 16
