College basketball teams to target in non-conference play

Teams to target | Teams to fade

College basketball is just one week away, which means it's time to start looking more in-depth at some key matchups in the season's non-conference schedule.

Here, we highlight some squads who have advantageous early slates and are worth targeting right off the hop.

Indiana

Indiana chose a difficult non-conference schedule to begin the Mike Woodson era, squaring off against three top-51 schools in KenPom's rankings. The teams - St. John's, Syracuse, and Notre Dame - are formidable offensive foes but will struggle to hold their own against Indiana's All-American big man Trayce Jackson-Davis. All three programs finished outside the top 100 in two-point percentage defense last year.

The Hoosiers also have quality offensive players along the perimeter, making them a team that can beat opponents from inside or out. With all of its challenging non-conference games likely having a spread no larger than five, Indiana should be a team to get behind early.

Richmond

All of Richmond's projected starters scored at least 12 points per game last season, save for guard Nick Sherod, who hit the mark in 2019-20 before missing last year with an ACL tear. The Spiders have multiple chances to impress in the non-conference slate, with contests against five teams that finished in the top two of their respective leagues in 2020-21.

Neutral-site contests against N.C. State and Maryland are the games to circle on the calendar. The Wolfpack might have the prestige of being an ACC team, but Richmond's current roster arguably has more talent. Meanwhile, Maryland's newer personnel and playing style should struggle in an early-season game against a group as experienced and battle-tested as the Spiders. Look to pounce on those matchups, as Richmond will likely be the underdog in both.

BYU

BYU needs a strong non-conference performance more than any other team in the country. Why? As long as No. 1 Gonzaga remains in the WCC, the Cougars have to depend on producing a good enough resume to earn an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament. Star guard Alex Barcello and the rest of the roster will need to click from the get-go.

BYU scheduled tough matchups in an effort to boost its chances of quality wins, with San Diego State, Oregon, and Creighton on the slate. The Aztecs lost their top three scorers and the Bluejays lost their top five, so the desperate Cougars will look to take advantage. With both games being close to an even spread, BYU is a great team to back.

Belmont

Belmont brings back an insane 2,377 out of 2,439 points from a team that went 26-4 last year. The Bruins have a pristine offense that is good enough to knock off any power conference opponent after ranking third nationally in two-point percentage last season. While defense isn't their strong suit, it'll be next to impossible to stop this team from scoring.

The Bruins will likely have two or three chances to knock off a top school, with a scheduled game against LSU and a tournament field in the ESPN Events Invitational that features Kansas and Alabama. While the mid-major squad may not win outright, Belmont scores way too easily not to keep those games close, which makes it a good idea to bet the Bruins as underdogs.

Alabama

Alabama loves to push the pace more than almost any team in the country, averaging the second-quickest possession length nationally last season, per KenPom. As a result, the Crimson Tide scored nearly 80 points per game in 2020-21, a trend that should continue in the upcoming non-conference slate.

Contests against Oakland and South Alabama could see the Crimson Tide top 100 points, while games against South Dakota State and Belmont mark two of the best mid-major offenses in the country. Then, Alabama takes on a Gonzaga team fresh off one of the best offensive seasons in college basketball history. Between the Crimson Tide's pace and the strong offensive opponents they'll face, it's a good idea to bet the over in some of their early non-conference games.