CBB Wednesday round-robin ML parlay: Getting over the hump

With 43 games on the main board, and many lined as winnable for the underdog, Wednesday's slate is less about whether there'll be upsets and more about which teams will pull them off.

Although our 'dogs went 3-2 against the spread Saturday, we're looking for the big hit after we fell short of round-robin parlay profitability when Notre Dame couldn't turn a halftime lead into a win.

How it works

When there's a big slate of games, and we've got a handful of bets, including numerous underdogs, it's worth a shot to go for a big payout for a fraction of our weekly outlay. We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for 0.1 units.

If three of five teams pull off the upset, you'll at least double your money. If four teams win, you'll connect on four separate parlays. If all five teams win, then we're diving into a pool of gold coins like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Creighton (+180)

Creighton has three road wins this month, including a victory at UConn as double-digit underdogs. Last month, the Blue Jays annihilated St. John's at home when the Red Storm had both Posh Alexander and Julian Champagnie in the lineup. Alexander missed a handful of games since that loss but returned in a big win over Butler. This might be why the line of -5 is higher than my numbers, which make this closer to a 3-point contest. At close to +200, I'll pay to see if Creighton can help its case to get off the NCAA Tournament bubble.

Rutgers (+160)

This isn't a play against Michigan because of Juwan Howard's absence after Sunday's postgame fiasco at Wisconsin. In fact, it's disappointing he's missing this matchup because the market has determined that he and Moussa Diabate are worth 2 points to the line. This is an overreaction, and we should be getting a better price.

However, I've had Rutgers circled here since before Sunday. In their convincing win over Michigan earlier this season, the Knights had a tougher time keeping Diabate off the glass than they did with Hunter Dickinson. Look for a tougher Rutgers team to add to its resume in Ann Arbor.

Virginia (+170)

Each of the previous underdogs has already won against its opponents this season. The same can be said for Virginia against Duke, except the Cavaliers' win came on the road at Cameron Indoor Stadium. The Blue Devils may get revenge, but Virginia has just one close loss in February, and Tony Bennett's team is playing its best basketball at the right time.

Valparaiso (+240)

This is a numbers play, since I have Valparaiso as a 4-point underdog at home to Drake. With three straight convincing wins, including on the road at conference powerhouse Loyola-Chicago, the Bulldogs are being rated as high as they've been all season.

I'll try not to get too excited about the Beacons' back-to-back wins over Evansville, but a 2-point loss to Loyola-Chicago prior to that stretch shows Valpo can play with anyone in the league. Five overtime games in the Missouri Valley confirms that as well.

These two teams haven't played since early December when Drake won by seven points at home, but the Beacons were missing Wisconsin transfer and second-leading scorer Kobe King. I expect this game to go either way late.

Wyoming (+240)

If my biggest complaint about Wyoming over the last month is a bad second half at The Pit in New Mexico, then the Cowboys must be playing good basketball. Wyoming has thrived on the road otherwise, and the team has a win over Colorado State already this season.

Fort Collins is no easy place to play, but the 7-point spread indicates an extensive home-court advantage for Colorado State; it's too high in a league that's been a nightly battle zone. There's no reason why this shouldn't be the case again for two evenly matched squads. At better than 2-to-1 odds, I'll take my chances that the Cowboys edge the Rams.

Here are how the odds look:

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.