CBB Saturday round-robin ML parlay: Big shots on big underdogs

Of the 43 games featured on the main board of Wednesday's voluminous college basketball slate, just five underdogs of more than a basket won outright.

This isn't because the good teams have gotten better, but rather because the market now has more of an understanding of who the better teams are after three months. Of the five underdogs we thought had a chance to win, only Creighton did so despite four of the five covering against the spread. The lesson is that lines are tighter late in the season, and while that provides more intense finishes relative to the point spread, there are fewer shocking outright results.

How the round-robin ML parlay works

When there's a big slate of games and we've got a handful of bets that include numerous underdogs, it's worth going for a big payout for a fraction of our weekly outlay. We parlay five underdogs together in 10 different three-team parlays. Using every combination of a three-team parlay is called a round robin, so we're going to use a total of 1.1 units to make 11 different bets: 10 three-team parlays and one five-team parlay, each for 0.1 units.

If three of five teams pull off the upset, you'll at least double your money. If four teams win, you'll connect on four separate parlays. If all five win, then we're diving into a pool of gold coins like a young Scrooge McDuck.

Who to play

Boston College (Projected ML: +150)

Don't look now, but the Eagles are soaring. Boston College has won back-to-back games against teams whose seasons probably can't end fast enough. Clemson, meanwhile, just snapped a six-game losing streak but hasn't won on the road in more than six weeks. The Eagles already have a win over the Tigers at Clemson, and with first-year head coach Earl Grant instilling hope in Chestnut Hill, I'll take Boston College as a short home 'dog.

Butler (Projected ML: +400)

After Chuck Harris scored on a layup with under a minute to go on the road at Seton Hall on Wednesday, Butler pulled within two points of the nine-point favorite Pirates. It should have come as no surprise that Butler found themselves in a close game, given how February has gone for the Bulldogs.

Outside of the outlier blowout at St. John's, Butler has been more than competitive with the midsection of the Big East. Marquette, meanwhile, has lost three of its last four with the one victory over hapless Georgetown. These Golden Eagles probably shouldn't be as high as a projected 8-point spread would suggest.

Fordham (Projected ML: +450)

My team of the year is ... *drumroll* ...

Fordham!

The Rams have regularly opened further from my projections than any team this season. Then they get bet, moving the line further away, only to cover all numbers anyway.

Outside of the blowout loss at St. Bonaventure, my numbers have shown a better grasp of Fordham than the market has. The Rams aren't likely to win at Davidson, but if the previous games are any indication, they will be live to do so at a big payout.

Southern Illinois (Projected ML: +200)

It's the final day of regular-season play in the Valley with Arch Madness set to begin next week. Both Drake and Southern Illinois have clinched a first-round bye, so this game is largely meaningless. That should cause some volatility in a matchup that previously finished in a 2-point game in Carbondale. With a projected point spread of Drake -6, the Salukis are the play, and at 2-to-1, I'll bet Southern Illinois gets some revenge and a fifth straight win.

Colorado (Projected ML: +300)

Recent wins over the bottom half of the Pac-12 shouldn't get anyone too excited about Colorado's chances at the NCAA Tournament. However, a win over Arizona would get some attention as we approach Selection Sunday.

Arizona has built a top-seed resume on big home wins, but there aren't many places to slip up on the road in the Pac-12 this season. One is UCLA, where the Wildcats lost. Another is Oregon, which isn't on Arizona's schedule. Another is USC, which is up next for the 'Cats. Boulder is one of the tougher places to play, and I wouldn't hold it against the Wildcats if they lose Saturday night.

Here are how the odds look:

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.