A half-dozen conference tournaments tip off this week, which means more than 50 teams get a chance to punch their ticket to the Big Dance. We're just looking to win a few bets, so let's break down where to find value early and late in the tournaments.
NEC (March 2)
Early-round bet: Sacred Heart @ Long Island (Projected line: LIU -9)
Sacred Heart turned things around after a slow start in the NEC and concluded their season with back-to-back wins. With both contests against Long Island ending as four-point games - one win, one loss - I'll take the Pioneers as an underdog of anything better than seven points in the first round.
Pick: Sacred Heart (+7.5 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Wagner @ Bryant (Projected line: Bryant PK)
With re-seeding after every round and all games at campus sites, there's a good chance we see a rematch of Saturday's game that featured Bryant (-5.5) stealing the regular-season title. That win, and Wagner's adjustment to life without Elijah Ford, might create some value in an NEC final on the Seahawks, who held a six-point lead at halftime last week.
Pick: Wagner (+3 or better)
Patriot League (March 1)
Early-round bet: Bucknell @ Lafayette (Projected line: Lafayette -5)
This isn't the Bucknell team we've grown accustomed to, but they're 5-6 in their last 11, including two overtime games with Lafayette. I'll take a pair of possessions if we get them.
Pick: Bucknell (+4 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Army @ Colgate (Projected line: Colgate -10.5)
This potential semifinal matchup would have me willing to lay it with Colgate, who boasts a 16-2 conference record with just a pair of four-point road blemishes. With three contenders on the other side of the bracket, a home semifinal should be a blowout win for Colgate against any of the potential matchups.
Pick: Colgate (-11 or better)
Atlantic Sun (March 1)
Early-round bet: North Florida @ Lipscomb (Projected line: Lipscomb -2.5)
If you ignore their loss to Jacksonville, North Florida had a good run to end its season. These two have been atop the rebuilt ASUN the last few years, but it's the Ospreys who I'll be looking to back here getting points at Lipscomb.
Pick: North Florida (+2 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Florida Gulf Coast @ Bellarmine (Projected line: Bellarmine -2)
Assuming Florida Gulf Coast takes care of North Alabama, they'll face Bellarmine, where they'll be a short underdog on the road. The Knights beat the Eagles the first time around, but FGCU is not only live to win this game, it could be live to make a run to the final.
Pick: Florida Gulf Coast (+2 or better)
Horizon League (March 1)
Early-round bet: Illinois Chicago @ Milwaukee (Projected line: UIC -1)
In a weird twist, Illinois Chicago has forfeited the right to host postseason home games. Despite hosting Milwaukee in the regular-season finale, the Flames will be driving up Highway 41 for this one. With home-court advantage for the Panthers, the opener of +3.5 doesn't account enough for the venue change.
Pick: Milwaukee (+3 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Detroit Mercy @ Northern Kentucky (Projected line: NKU -2)
It would take a massive upset for the top seeds not to hold, so we'll likely see 6-seed Detroit Mercy go on the road to a team they've already beaten twice. I'll be betting them outright or riding a pre-tournament future on the Titans (+1200 or better) as Antoine Davis can carry them for a week with a decent route in the bracket.
Pick: Detroit Mercy (+2 or better)
Ohio Valley Conference (March 2)
Early-round bet: SIU Edwardsville vs. Tennessee State (Projected line: Tennessee State -1.5)
Since a blowout loss to Southeast Missouri State on Jan. 2nd, any Tennessee State defeat has been mostly understandable. With two wins over SIU Edwardsville already, the Tigers should be able to make it a third in what's expected to be a tightly lined game.
Pick: Tennessee State (-1.5 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: Morehead State vs. Belmont (Projected line: Belmont -3.5)
With the ladder-style bracket in the OVC, a semifinal matchup between Belmont and Morehead State seems inevitable. While most will think a third game between Murray State and the Bruins is fait accompli, the Eagles will have something to say about that. Belmont has struggled with the athleticism of both Murray State and Morehead State this season.
Pick: Morehead State (+3.5 or better)
Big South (March 2)
Early-round bet: Hampton vs. High Point (Projected line: High Point -6)
A 7-10 matchup doesn't usually involve a contender for the tournament title and is often more closely matched. High Point isn't far off from the upper echelon of the Big South, and Hampton is.
Pick: High Point (-6 or better)
Late-round matchup to target: SC Upstate vs. UNC Asheville (Projected line: UNC Asheville -3.5)
South Carolina Upstate is the nominal 4-seed and gets the bye, but UNC Asheville shouldn't have much trouble with Charleston Southern in the first round or the over-seeded Spartans later on. Upstate is widely rated as the eighth-best team in the conference by advanced metrics.
Pick: UNC Asheville (-3.5 or better)
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
