CBB betting: How to bet the Big Ten Tournament

The Big Ten's known for its home-court advantage ways. But the conference tournament brings a fresh taste for all 14 teams when the season shifts to a neutral-site tourney format. The squad that executes when all things are otherwise equal gets crowned champion Sunday.

Tournament odds:

This tournament features a graduated-bye system, and the top four teams on the board are not coincidentally the four teams already into the quarterfinals. Despite playing in the first round Wednesday, Northwestern is getting more credit from oddsmakers than Maryland. Meanwhile, the Terrapins managed to land a bye to the second round.

First-round bet to make

Nebraska vs. Northwestern (-5, 144.5)

March 9, 6pm E.T.

With two convincing wins over the Cornhuskers and its power rating being what it is, I understand why Northwestern is a modest favorite against Nebraska. However, three games ago, the Huskers found something to turn them from the worst team in the league to a program that quadrupled their conference win total.

The most impressive part of Nebraska's turnaround is each of its three wins to close the season came on the road. Outside of its victory in Lincoln, Northwestern has just one road win in 2022. The rejuvenated Huskers likely won't make a long run in Indianapolis, but they've got a chance to survive to the second day.

Pick: Nebraska +5

Late-round bets to target

Michigan vs. Illinois (Projected line: -2)

Quarterfinal, March 11

Truthfully, I'm unconvinced that the Wolverines will participate in this contest, and I'll likely be on Indiana in their first-round matchup if I can get three points on the Hoosiers. But if Michigan gets out of that game, I'll back Illinois in the quarterfinals.

Michigan's Hunter Dickinson missed the season finale due to an illness, and playing back-to-back games with Kofi Cockburn waiting in the second contest is a tall task. The Wolverines probably solidified their spot in the NCAA Tournament with Sunday's win at Ohio State. But they would cement their bid with a victory over Indiana, so there might be a letdown element for them.

Illinois handled Michigan in Ann Arbor and stole a share of the regular-season title. I expect it to push for a second straight Big Ten tourney championship, starting with a convincing win in the quarterfinals.

Pick: Illinois (-2 or better)

Best bet to win the tournament

There are two bets to make on the winner of the Big Ten Tournament, and neither are particularly comfortable.

Nobody likes betting on Iowa. It's annually rated highly in advanced metrics, and each year it disappoints. With prohibitive pricing on the favorites, the Hawkeyes have a decent route to the title game. They should take care of either Nebraska or Northwestern, and then my numbers make it seven points better than Rutgers on a neutral court. The Scarlet Knights' success came almost exclusively at home this season.

Once it reaches the semifinals, Iowa would be a pick'em with the Illini. Purdue is the only team the Hawkeyes would be an underdog against in Sunday's final. A rollover moneyline parlay could be more lucrative, but having a +400 ticket in your account would be quite valuable if Illinois and Purdue aren't the opponents at that stage of the tournament.

Since the bottom of the bracket looks similarly wide open, Maryland (100-1) is worth a couple of dollars, just in case. Though the Terrapins are looking up at Northwestern on the board, they've performed better lately and don't have to play in the first round. They'll be small underdogs to Michigan State before getting Wisconsin in the semifinal. The Badgers had a Cinderella regular season, but they only beat Maryland by a point earlier this campaign.

Pick: Iowa +400 / Maryland +10000

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.