NCAA Tournament best bets: The First Four

If you believe March Madness truly started when the calendar turned and the conference tournaments began, then you've already been on a wild ride. Luckily, an 18-11 ATS record and finding the winners of the SEC and Big Ten tournaments made it feel like we punched our own ticket to the Big Dance.

However, for eight teams, there's still another step to be truly included in the traditional 64-team bracket that is locked at noon Thursday. The First Four has tightly lined matchups, but will they be as tightly played as the betting market thinks?

Texas A&M-Corpus Christi vs. Texas Southern (-3.5, 136)

The answer to that question for the opener in Dayton is no. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi wins by getting the spotlight of a stand-alone game Tuesday night and by having one of the cooler campuses in the country.

The Islanders - I wonder where they got that name - will lose this game, though, and it may not be close. They're the worst team in the field, ranking 243rd per KenPom. Picked to finish last before the season, the 4-seed scored a pair of upsets in the Southland Conference Tournament to punch its ticket, but it faces another Texas team that has more history in March Madness.

Texas Southern won and covered a First Four game last season, and Johnny Jones' program has made the field of 68 six times since 2014. The Tigers returned four starters from the 2021 tournament and would have won the regular-season SWAC crown were it not for a pair of losses to Alcorn State. They responded by blowing out the Braves in Saturday's title game.

With a combination of depth, size, and athleticism that the Islanders don't possess, look for Texas Southern to easily move on to face Kansas.

Pick: Texas Southern -3.5

Wyoming vs. Indiana (-4, 132.5)

Blueblood Indiana is receiving the betting attention as this line has crept up since Sunday night's open. That's fine by me.

Wyoming got some buzz from a 12-1 mid-season stretch, but it finished 4-5 in the Mountain West - a conference that was as tough this season as ever. Despite his inexperience, Graham Ike developed into a problem this year, so Trayce Jackson-Davis will have his hands full down low. The Cowboys attack the block in an unusual way, with 6-7 guard Hunter Maldonado posting up smaller point guards and distributing out of the post.

It will be up to Indiana's coaching staff to find the game plan and matchups to deal with the unorthodox approach from the Cowboys. The Hoosiers' defense is the best side in this game, but that could be mitigated here. Only a second-half comeback against Michigan prevented Indiana from missing the tournament entirely, so my expectations are tempered here. The Hoosiers are a team I have lined as -1.5, but who are giving four.

Pick: Wyoming +4

Bryant vs. Wright St. (-3, 154.5)

What type of person do you want to be?

If you want to back the antics of the nation's leading scorer, Peter Kiss (25.1 PPG), then you're getting a few points to do so with Bryant. If you're looking to fade college hoops' newest villain, you missed the move on Wright State. The Horizon League champs opened as 1.5-point favorites, but money has come in on the Raiders, moving the line to -3.

We have a matchup of two of the three worst teams in defensive efficiency here, so there should be more than enough scoring to keep you entertained - beyond what Kiss has up his sleeve - but that's reflected in the high total.

After the point spread moved, this is now "underdog or pass." When it comes to Kiss and the Bulldogs, I'll pass.

Pick: Pass

Rutgers vs. Notre Dame (-1, 132)

There's an adage in the college hoops betting community: "Brey with prep."

Notre Dame head coach Mike Brey has pulled off numerous NCAA Tournament upsets when he's had ample time to prepare for his opponent, including back-to-back Regional Final appearances. He didn't get that opportunity in the ACC Tournament when Notre Dame's opponent - eventual champion Virginia Tech - was decided the night before its quarterfinal.

Now Brey has had plenty of time to work on his team and gets three days to have them ready for their opponent. A couple of late-season road wins saved Rutgers' season. Otherwise, there wasn't much to like about the Scarlet Knights' non-conference schedule and results away from home.

The Irish will move into the main bracket, becoming dangerous in the first round against Alabama and potentially beyond.

Pick: Notre Dame -1

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.