CBB futures best bets: Bet UNC, Villanova to win national title
With the college basketball season set to kick off on Monday, it's almost time to dive into spreads and totals on a nightly basis. But before we can do that, we have to glance at season-long future bets for potential value on the board.
Between conference winners, the individual Player of the Year award, and the NCAA championship, we're looking at the best future bets on the market.
Conference Winners
UCLA to win Pac-12 (+190)
Much like last season, the majority of the Pac-12 is down this year. Colorado and USC are poised for a step back, while schools like Utah, Washington, and Oregon State are destined for another basement finish. Arizona (+190) and Oregon (+550) are UCLA's only real competition for the regular season title.
The Ducks are coming off their worst season in years and would need an elite campaign from one of their big men to make the mark. The Wildcats lost three NBA draft picks and didn't bring in much to replace them. That leaves the Bruins - who bring back almost their entire core from the year prior and two five-star recruits - as the clear bet at their current price.
Purdue to win Big Ten (+800)
In a conference where only three of 17 All-Big Ten recipients return, anybody can take home the regular-season title. One of those returning is Purdue big man Zach Edey, who made the team despite playing only 19 minutes per game. With frontcourt mate Trevion Williams off to the pros, the team will hand Edey the keys to the car offensively.
Joining Edey - and his bonkers stat lines of 30.3 points and 16.2 rebounds per 40 minutes - is a plethora of shooters to help space the floor and active defenders on the other end. While the Boilermakers lack a true point guard, head coach Matt Painter's scheme will allow them to run offense through their towering big man. In a wide-open conference, bet an undervalued program with one of the country's best players.
Tennessee to win SEC (+350)
Don't put too much stock into preseason games, but Tennessee's 19-point victory over national championship contender Gonzaga certainly is a noteworthy result. With an elite defensive system under head coach Rick Barnes, a top-tier backcourt in Santiago Vescovi and Zakai Ziegler, and plenty of frontcourt options, the Volunteers can prove the exhibition result is the norm as time progresses.
While Kentucky is the favorite for the SEC crown, the program is far from a lock. Not only have the Wildcats won just one regular-season title since 2017, but they'll be depending heavily on unproven players outside of star big man Oscar Tshiebwe. Same goes for Arkansas, whose three best players may be freshmen. Tennessee features more experience than both and is worth a bet at large odds.
Player of the Year Award
Marcus Sasser, Houston (+1200)
Houston guard Marcus Sasser is potentially the best player on what's potentially the best team, which is surely a good starting point for the Player of the Year award, but he only has the fifth-best odds for the honor. After averaging 17.7 points per game last season, dropping 20 a night - along with multiple rebounds, assists, and steals per game - is not out of the question.
Sasser does have some things working against him, mainly that the last four Player of the Year recipients were forwards or big men, putting the 6-foot-1 guard out of place. Still, Sasser's consistency, scoring, and contribution to the Cougars' success could put him in the realm of Jalen Brunson or Frank Mason, two somewhat recent point guard winners who used solid individual and team play to achieve the hardware.
Keyonte George (+6600)
If five-star guard Keyonte George's performance at Baylor's preseason tournament in July is any indication, he could be one of the best scorers in the nation as just a freshman. Playing against the U23 teams from multiple basketball powerhouse countries, George was the only player in the entire competition to score at least 30 points in a game - and he did it on two separate occasions.
In the grand scheme of the Player of the Year award, George's potential status as the best on Baylor's team could put him in a similar situation as Sasser if the Bears rank near the top of the nation by season's end, as expected. However, George is listed at significantly higher odds, giving him much more value on the betting front.
National Championship
North Carolina (+1100)
It doesn't take much logic to suggest North Carolina could be one of the country's top teams this season after bringing back four starters and adding a key transfer to a group that was just three points away from a national championship. Yes, the Tar Heels possess the third-best odds to win it all this go-around, but there's still a level of pessimism surrounding the program.
UNC did get quite lucky on its championship journey and may not be quite the same side in this year's regular season, but the squad's built for a playoff run around star guards Caleb Love and RJ Davis and big man Armando Bacot. If the backcourt gets hot again and teams can't keep Bacot off the glass, the Tar Heels could be due for another March Madness burst at semi-decent odds.
Villanova (+2800)
Villanova has taken a few major hits heading into the new campaign. For one, legendary head coach Jay Wright retired, and the program replaced him with one-time assistant Kyle Neptune. Potential leading scorer Justin Moore went down with an injury in last year's NCAA Tournament and will miss most of the season, while prized freshman Cam Whitmore is out to start the year with a thumb injury.
However, all those roadblocks could make the betting markets undervalue the perennial powerhouse Wildcats. Odds are Neptune will adapt to his new role, while Moore and Whitmore will return to the lineup by the postseason. If that is the case, betting Villanova to cut down the March Madness nets at the 14th-best odds is a steal.
HEADLINES
- Georgetown's Cooley apologizes for derogatory comment about Illinois
- Riley's big 2nd half lifts No. 25 Illinois over Maryland Eastern Shore
- Kaufman-Renn leads No. 6 Purdue to rout of Marshall
- Mitchell leads No. 18 Cincinnati in rout of Georgia Tech
- No. 15 Marquette beats Georgia in the Bahamas behind Joplin's 29 points