CBB betting: How to approach single-bid conference tournaments
The patent lawyers and branding specialists can file all the paperwork they want to call the NCAA Tournament "March Madness," but we know it's more than that. Conference tournament season - officially starting with some deep cuts Feb. 27 and 28 - heats up when the calendar turns, as (almost) everyone can win the national title. All they have to do is go undefeated the rest of the way.
More realistically, players and teams just dream to make the big dance. They'll get their chance to secure the automatic bid that comes with winning the Patriot League, Atlantic-Sun, and Big South, among many others.
One-bid leagues, which include at least 20 of the 32 conferences across the country, make up the roots of a conference tournament period that may be the wildest stretch of the college basketball season. Here's what you need to know before you bet:
Know the motivation
Given that everyone is all-in to make the season one they'll remember for a lifetime, there shouldn't be any letdowns, and each team will at least try to bring their best.
However, there's also a bigger element at play. The teams that gain their league's bid to the big dance are that conference's submission for Cinderella consideration. They will want to put their best foot forward since a win as a double-digit seed may be the signature upset we'll remember for years to come.
Know the format
Some conferences really lean into giving their best team an advantage. One way to do that is by cooking up some wacky brackets:
The West Coast Conference, like the OVC and Southland Conference, sets up its top two seeds with byes all the way to the semifinals. While the WCC regularly gets more than one bid to the NCAA Tournament, sending Gonzaga straight to a semifinal in a season where the team might be down helps guard against an upset of the conference's bell cow. In many ways, that's how Gonzaga became a staple in March, thereby lifting the league as a whole. That is the dream for smaller conferences like Ohio Valley and Southland.
Know the location(s)
While the format is one way to tilt the scales toward your conference powerhouse, another way to make the regular-season champion more comfortable is to just have the whole tournament in its home gym.
The America East, A-Sun, Northeast, and Patriot League have all their games played at the higher seed's gym. A home-court advantage for a conference final, with a trip to the NCAA Tournament on the line, is invaluable when seemingly an entire student population tries to cram into a small gym. The usual three or four points of home-court advantage built into a point spread likely aren't enough.
On the flip side, for the early rounds, make sure you know the home fan base really believes in the dream. For some on-campus quarterfinals, you may find yourself backing a home team that has no one in the house.
Know if there's a second bid available
Some seasons, a small conference team is so good that they don't need to win their tournament, given that their resume is good enough to gain an at-large selection from the committee. This season, Florida Atlantic is a projected 10-seed from a traditional one-bid league in Conference USA. If the team feels safe, it may not have the same desperation in a tournament where all the other teams know that it's "win or go home." The same goes for San Diego State - a projected 6-seed - where it'll be up against teams like Nevada, Utah State, and Boise State, who are all allegedly on the bubble.
Final takeaways
If you're looking for upsets in the conference futures market or game-by-game, look for tournaments that are played at neutral locations, with traditional brackets that put all teams on the same level. That way, you can take away the variable of home-court advantage that can drastically change a point spread.
In turn, knowing that certain teams have earned the right to be set up for success means that laying points in a matchup where you wouldn't otherwise be comfortable in doing so might be the right play.
Either way, while betting success will significantly augment your enjoyment of the next month, living and dying with arguably the purest high-level sporting journey on the calendar is the true fun that comes with two full weeks of the madness of March.
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.