CBB conference tournament betting: Best bets for the Missouri Valley and WCC

You should always build your handicap of a matchup around what statistics and metrics you believe to be most important. As we head into March Madness, I'll base my handicaps for conference tournaments around individual teams' shot quality (SQ). Using shotquality.com's Adjusted Offensive points (AdjOFF), Adjusted Defensive points (AdjDEF), and "Rim & 3" rate (R3), we'll back teams that excel at getting good shots and limit their opponents' quality of shots. While we can't predict whether the balls bounce in or out, we'll let the chips fall where they may, knowing we have a basis for our search for value against the spread.

Missouri Valley (Mar. 2)

Early-round bet: (9) Illinois St. vs. (8) Northern Iowa

Northern Iowa struggles to score, but you can go a long way in tournament play - with its unfamiliar large-arena setting - dragging opponents into low-scoring games. The Panthers allow just 0.97 points per possession, adjusted for shot quality. On top of that, Illinois State has a league-worst turnover ratio of minus-3.3.

The Redbirds' defense allows opponents 1.08 adjusted points per possession, and they lost both regular-season meetings to UNI. Diminutive sophomore guard Bowen Born gets enough big baskets to pull away for a win by margin.

Pick: Northern Iowa (-3.5 or better)

Late-round matchup to target: (6) Missouri St. vs. (3) Southern Illinois

Neither Missouri State nor Southern Illinois should be much of a match for Drake in a potential semifinal, and even though the Salukis won both regular-season matchups, I like the Bears to get revenge.

ShotQuality has Southern Illinois with a whopping six more wins this season than its metrics suggest, and it's worse than Missouri State in both adjusted offense and defense. The Bears are the better rebounding and 3-point shooting team and were without their leading scorer in the first meeting, and then the second loss came down to the final possession.

Pick: Missouri St. (PK or better)

Champ pick: Indiana State (+650)

Indiana State's odds are boosted incrementally as it has to play an extra game, but it shouldn't have much trouble with Evansville in the first round. The Purple Aces are one of few teams capable of outscoring Belmont in the quarters, so let's put them in the semis.

Assuming top-seed Bradley doesn't get suffocated by Northern Iowa's defense, the Braves will have their hands full with the Sycamores. Both Bradley and Indiana State are nearly identical in their adjusted metrics, but ISU is the best team in the country at taking threes or layups at a 93% rate. The Braves ended up with three more wins than their shot quality deserved, so regression might bite them on semifinal Saturday of Arch Madness.

DePaul transfer Courvoisier McCauley added some spirit to sixth-year senior Cooper Neese and the Sycamores' offense this season, so a run to the finals is possible. Drake - the tournament favorite - may come from the bottom half of the bracket, but it split the season series versus Indiana State, with each team winning by two points.

West Coast Conference (Mar. 2)

Early-round bet: (10) Pepperdine vs. (7) Pacific

Pacific forward Sam Freeman averaged 11 minutes per game this season. An unbelievable 10 guards averaged more minutes for the Tigers. Essentially, Pacific comes at you in waves, frequently with a five-guard lineup, and the team shoots threes at the highest rate in the conference and defends them well, too. However, the Tigers are going to get beat on the glass.

Fortunately for them, Pepperdine doesn't rebound the ball well, either. So while the Waves probably deserved better than their 2-14 conference record, their metrics suggest that they'll be trading their mid-range twos for Pacific's threes, which means they may get caught in the undertow, quickly sending them back to Malibu.

Pick: Pacific (+1.5)

Late-round matchup to target: (5) BYU vs. (4) Loyola Marymount

Loyola Marymount beat both Gonzaga and Saint Mary's this season. As the only team to do so, that accomplishment got the Lions some headlines. However, those wins might also overvalue them in the marketplace, and they might be one-and-done in Las Vegas. The Lions split with BYU this season, losing by 18 on the road and winning by five in a close game at home where the Cougars shot just 15.4% from three.

BYU has the second-best AdjDEF in the conference and is particularly adept at defending the three-point line - which is the weapon the Lions used to beat the Gaels.

Pick: BYU (-2.5 or better)

Champ pick: Saint Mary's (+100)

It's hard to imagine that we're not headed for the usual Gonzaga-Saint Mary's clash in Las Vegas. Given that Gonzaga was -5 at home in the conference regular-season finale with the Gaels, we can assume that a neutral clash will be close to a pick'em. So it's a matter of whether you want to lock in a plus-price on the Gaels now or later.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.