CBB conference tournament betting: Best bets for the SoCon and Summit League

You should always build your handicap around what statistics and metrics you believe to be most important. As we head into March Madness, I'll be basing my handicaps for conference tournaments around individual teams' shot quality (SQ). Using shotquality.com's Adjusted Offensive (AdjOFF) points, Adjusted Defensive (AdjDEF) points, and "Rim & 3" (R3) rate, we'll back teams who excel at getting good shots and limiting their opponents' shot quality. While we can't predict whether the balls bounce in or out, we'll let the chips fall where they may knowing we have a basis for our search for value against the spread.

Southern Conference (March 3)

Early-round bet: (5) East Tennessee State vs. (4) Western Carolina

With an R3 rate that's 10% higher than East Tennessee's, Western Carolina is more likely to shoot a higher percentage in any given game. In both regular-season matchups, the Catamounts outshot the Buccaneers from three, and they recorded a double-digit victory despite East Tennessee shooting 50% from the field.

The Catamounts should overcome the Buccaneers' advantage on the glass by taking advantage of East Tennessee's willingness to turn the ball over, creating extra possessions. That will translate into good shots for Western Carolina's three 15-plus-point-per-game scorers.

Pick: Western Carolina (PK or better)

Late-round matchup to target: (7) Chattanooga vs. (2) Samford

Admittedly, this game takes place in the same quarterfinal stage as our "early-round" game above. However, it's still only a theoretical matchup at this point. Chattanooga made the most threes in the conference this season, shooting them at a 36% rate. That makes the Mocs capable of upsetting Samford. However, the big point of interest (literally) is 7-foot center Jake Stephens, who averaged over 20 points and better than 40% shooting from three before breaking his thumb in January. He could be the ultimate X-factor for Chattanooga after returning to practice this week.

Pick: Chattanooga (+3 or better)

Champ pick: UNC-Greensboro (+250)

A Chattanooga upset over Samford would certainly help UNC-Greensboro's path; the Spartans lost both meetings to the Bulldogs and easily handled the Mocs twice. Even if they have to take on Samford, though, there's reason to believe the Spartans can win a third meeting. The Bulldogs shot nearly 50% from three in their win at UNC-Greensboro, and the teams' matchup in Alabama was tied with six minutes to go.

The Spartans have one of the country's worst home-court advantages, playing in front of a thousand fans in the 23,000-seat Greensboro Coliseum each night. That should serve them well on a neutral site in a possible finals matchup with Furman, who they beat on the road in overtime in front of a sellout crowd. It's also highly unlikely UNC-Greensboro shoots 16.7% from three as it did in its home loss to Furman.

Furman has the better ShotQuality metrics, but with a projected spread of just 1.5 points, we'll take the better payout on the Spartans.

Summit League (March 3)

Early-round bet: (10) Nebraska-Omaha vs. (7) UM Kansas City

Two weeks ago, UM Kansas City lost one of its two big-time scorers when Shemarri Allen (17 ppg) tore his ACL early in a home game against 9-seed North Dakota. The Roos subsequently suffered blowout losses to the South Dakota teams as RayQuawndis Mitchell couldn't handle the offensive load on his own for what was already a terrible shooting squad.

While Nebraska-Omaha has won once in its last 12 games, the team lost by just three points in Kansas City when the Roos had Allen. The Mavericks, whose three best players are all sophomores, should have more to play for than UM Kansas City amidst its lost season.

It's likely going to be difficult for oddsmakers to catch up on how bad the Roos are. We've already seen the favorite flip overnight, but there's some value on Omaha as a short favorite.

Pick: Nebraska-Omaha (-1.5)

Late-round matchup to target: (10) Nebraska-Omaha vs. (2) South Dakota State

Call it a potential two-for-one play, but if Nebraska-Omaha advances past the shorthanded Roos, the Mavericks' youthful exuberance could be mistaken for quality in the market. In a quarterfinal matchup against South Dakota State in Sioux Falls, the 2-seed Jack Rabbits would be primed for a blowout win.

South Dakota State beat the Mavericks by 21 and 23 points this season. The Jack Rabbits are also coming off a close loss to undefeated Oral Roberts, so the Summit League powerhouse would likely be focused against Nebraska-Omaha.

Pick: South Dakota State (-11 or better)

Champ pick: Oral Roberts (-190)

This seems like a steep price for a conference champion, but Oral Roberts didn't so much as see overtime or a last-second shot on its way to going 18-0 in the Summit League. The lowest the Golden Eagles would be is 8-point favorites in the final, which would include a moneyline in the mid-300s. Of course, they have to get there first, but two games as double-digit favorites aren't all that scary, especially for their veteran core of Max Abmas, Connor Vanover, and Issac McBride.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.