Conference tournament previews: Betting the SoCon, CAA and Summit League

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A trio of single-bid leagues tip off on Thursday, and those who make it out of each conference tournament will find themselves in the NCAA Tournament bracket. The winners of the SoCon, CAA, and Summit League will be seeded in the teens, and, while picking one of them for a first-round upset will take a strong stomach, it isn't out of the question.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

Southern Conference (March 8)

Early-round bet

First round: (9) Citadel vs. (8) Mercer (-3, 140)

Mercer finished 8-10 with two wins over Furman, two wins over UNCG, and one win over Samford. Yet kenpom.com only rates the team as marginally better than Citadel. Had the Bears not blown a big second-half lead in Charleston, maybe that wouldn't be the case. But we'll take our chances in the postseason with a team capable of high-end results when locked in. ShotQuality has a bigger gap between these teams than Kenpom does, and Mercer does a better job of taking care of the ball and shooting the three.

Pick: Mercer (-3)

Furman (+650)

The SoCon is wide open, with eight teams rated within 8.5 points of each other and intriguing quarterfinal games. Assuming Mercer can get past Citadel, it can give Samford trouble, and we'll be looking to back Mercer at +8 or better. Anything can happen in Asheville, so we'll try a moderate long shot that's atop the league in ShotQuality metrics. Furman brings a 90% R3 rate, the 70th-best AdjOFF nationally (best in the conference), and an AdjDEF not far behind the SoCon's best.

Furman creates extra possessions by crashing the offensive glass, and its turnover margin was second in league play. The Paladins split their regular season games with the other contenders in the top half of the bracket (Western Carolina and Samford), but they have the longest odds of the three teams already with a spot in the quarters.

Coastal Athletic Association (March 8)

Early-round bet

First round (March 9): (10) Northeastern vs. (7) Stony Brook
Projected line: Stony Brook -2

William & Mary looks like a decent first-round bet, but there's a play worth making on the CAA Tournament's second night in which you won't have to worry about a point spread.

ShotQuality sees Northeastern as a notably better team than Stony Brook, suggesting that the Huskies are four wins better than their record while the Wolves are three wins worse than theirs. We particularly like an AdjOFF comparable to the top teams in the league and a robust 85% R3 rate.

We'll need Luka Sakota back in the lineup, as Northeastern lost all six games - and both meetings with Stony Brook - without the Canadian, who is its second-leading scorer.

Pick: Northeastern moneyline (+100 or better)

Hofstra (+285)

Drexel used a hot shooting night to edge Hofstra at home - one of just two wins over the other top four teams in the CAA. An 11-1 record against the bottom of the league gave the Dragons second place, creating a path for 3-seed Hofstra that's easier to navigate than the top of the bracket, where Charleston and Wilmington should have a semifinal showdown if Towson doesn't disrupt things.

Hofstra boasts the best scorer in the conference in Tyler Thomas (22.3 PPG), and the Pride have the best ShotQuality metrics as a team. With the highest AdjOFF and an AdjDEF behind Towson, the case can be made that Hofstra is the best team in the conference. It'd likely be a short underdog in the title game, but since we can't say who its opponent will be with any confidence, it's the best choice among four similarly priced squads.

Summit League (March 8)

Early-round bet

First round: (9) South Dakota vs. (8) Oral Roberts (-3.5, 155)

Given that they're in the lone game in the first round of the Summit League tournament, it won't come as a surprise that neither South Dakota nor Oral Roberts is any good, particularly defensively, where both AdjDEF are pushing into the 300s nationally. So we search for something, anything, that one of these teams does well.

The Coyotes can shoot. South Dakota leads the Summit League in 3-point percentage and, given this defense-optional matchup, should be able to get more than its fair share of open looks. Most importantly, Oral Roberts was installed as 3.5-point favorites in a game I have lined at -2.5, which was generous considering the Golden Eagles come in on a seven-game losing streak.

Pick: South Dakota (+3.5)

St. Thomas (+285)

No matter where you get your analytics, South Dakota State and St. Thomas are atop the Summit League. They also happen to be headed for a semifinal matchup. Without a viable option from the bottom of the bracket, we'll take the better payout between these two teams that played a pair of tooth-and-nail games during the season. Due to NCAA rules, the newly promoted Tommies aren't eligible for the big dance until 2027, so if they can make the Summit League final, their opponent will get the bid automatically. This may give St. Thomas an implicit advantage in its biggest game of the season.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.