Conference tourney previews: Betting the A10, Conference USA and MAAC

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The first week of March Madness - non-copyright edition - was loaded with drama.

Even when it goes against you, you have to respect the mayhem.

With three more mid-major conference tournaments set to tip off Tuesday, we won't let them get lost underneath the weight of the power conferences that steal the spotlight from lesser-known teams.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

Atlantic-10 (March 12)

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal (March 13): (9) Saint Joseph's vs. (8) George Mason
Projected line: St. Joseph's (-1)

Saint Joseph's is fifth nationally in R3 rate and has five players who average double-digit points. The Hakws are better than George Mason in both ShotQuality's AdjOFF and AdjDEF metrics and should be able to take advantage of the Patriots' inability to take care of the ball.

Pick: St. Joseph's (-1)

VCU (+900)

Dayton's A-10 season was equally weird to its standing as a 3-seed. Most of the Flyers' games against top teams in the conference were on the road, and they lost all four. Close home wins over VCU, UMass, and St. Bonaventure aren't inspiring enough to make me feel they're invincible - something I'd need to bet them at +150. Meanwhile, top-seeded Richmond is vulnerable in the quarters to St. Joe's.

VCU's probable path to the final - Davidson, UMass, and Richmond - are teams at the bottom of the A-10 in either 3-point shooting or rebounding margin. Don't be concerned about VCU's three-game losing streak to end the regular season, going to overtime in Dayton is no easy feat, even in defeat. Rams head coach Ryan Odom has a solid track record in tournaments - winning the America East over Vermont and beating Virginia with UMBC as well as three Mountain West Tournament victories in two years at Utah State. The Rams are fully healthy and could win a rematch with Dayton in the final.

Conference USA (March 12)

Early-round bet

First round: (9) Florida International vs. (8) Jacksonville State (-4.5, 140)
March 12, 9 p.m. ET

Florida International is the last seed in the stripped-down Conference USA but isn't the worst team in the league. The Golden Panthers went 3-5 in their last eight games, falling down the CUSA standings, but their wins came over Sam Houston, Liberty, and Western Kentucky, suggesting they can reach another gear.

Jacksonville State's leading scorer, KyKy Tandy, has scored 55 points in two games against FIU, but with time for teams to plan to force someone else to beat them, it gets harder for a singular star to dominate. The Panthers, meanwhile, have more of a three-headed attack.

Pick: Florida International (+4.5)

Liberty (+450)

Sam Houston steamrolled down the stretch with seven straight wins, stealing the CUSA title on Louisiana Tech's home court. But two weeks ago, Liberty was considered the most likely team to give the favored Bulldogs the biggest challenge. The Flames have the best AdjOFF by a wide margin, the third-best AdjDEF in the league, and are second nationally with a 93% R3 rate. Their results to close out the season weren't great, but we know they're capable of getting efficient shots on offense and are tough on opponents.

Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference (March 12)

Early-round bet

First round: (10) Manhattan vs. (7) Iona (-8.5, 137)
March 12, 7:30 p.m. ET

You don't often get eight points from a team you recently beat by 17, but that's the situation here.

Iona's top scorer, Greg Gordon, left the program for personal reasons, and the Gaels' results and metrics have fallen since. With him shooting 7-of-9 in a home game, Iona beat Manhattan by 10 points the first time they met. In the rematch, without Gordon, they were blown out.

Oddsmakers are rating Iona on its season as a whole, but it's not the same team it was a month ago, so there's some value on the Jaspers.

Pick: Manhattan (+8.5)

Marist (+600)

A look at the oddsboard shows that no one has a clue what to expect in the MAAC. The top seven teams in the conference are rated within three points of each other, which means any number of permutations are possible for the semifinals and final.

Iona's falloff means the bottom half of the bracket looks easier than the top, where picking between Quinnipiac, Rider, St. Peter's, and Mount St. Mary's is anybody's guess.

Marist and the favored Fairfield have the same ShotQuality metrics, but the former is the better defensive team. In a one-game showdown on a neutral court, give me the team with the Red Foxes' profile, especially at double the payout.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.