Conference tournament previews: Betting the American, SWAC and MEAC

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The American Athletic Conference was pillaged of its top team - Houston - and lacks a clear favorite despite adding enough schools last summer to expand its tournament to five days. Meanwhile, the SWAC and MEAC will be decided using the traditional eight-team and three-round format that does the top seed no favors and opens up the possibility of a long-shot winner.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

American Athletic Conference (March 13)

Early-round bet

First round: (14) UTSA vs. (11) Temple (-1, 150.5)
March 13, 3:30 p.m. ET

There were suspicions over a strange move in the betting market before a recent Temple game, but those were somewhat quelled when it beat UTSA on Sunday on a buzzer-beater. The worst-shooting team in the American (30.9%) went 12 of 25 from deep and turned the ball over just twice. It was the Owls' second win over UTSA this season, but the Roadrunners came into that game with three straight victories, and we'll expect some regression for Temple.

Pick: UTSA (+1)

North Texas (+900)

Final Four "Cinderella" Florida Atlantic is the best team in the AAC this season, but it got a tough draw. Its first game of the tournament will be against North Texas, one of two local teams in the Metroplex and one which KenPom rates as the third-best team in the league. Meanwhile, ShotQuality has the Mean Green second in its metrics.

North Texas gets a game under its belt on Thursday as a projected 5-point favorite, so if Florida Atlantic takes too long to get into the contest, the Mean Green have the defense (second in opponent FG%) and shooting (second in 3-point percentage) to pull off an upset, something they came short of in two incredibly close meeting with the Owls this season.

If they can get out of the quarterfinals, the Mean Green won't be an underdog in any of the other possible matchups, so there's just one big hurdle toward a big payout.

MEAC (March 13)

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal: (6) Delaware State vs. (3) South Carolina State
Projected line: South Carolina State (-1)

Delaware State and South Carolina State have similar metrics. The Hornets have slightly better AdjDEF, while the Bulldogs have the better AdjOFF. Where the Hornets faltered in two losses to SC State this season is on the glass. The Bulldogs have a +6.5 rebounding margin - the best in the MEAC - and out-rebounded the Hornets while holding double-digit second-half leads in both games. South Carolina State was 8-1 against lower teams in the standings, so we'll back the Bulldogs to improve to 9-1.

Pick: South Carolina State (-1)

Howard (+450)

Howard's roster literally came together last offseason when the Bison added eighth-year senior Seth Towns. It came together figuratively throughout the season, as Bryce Harris and former Maryland transfer Marcus Dockery found the best of their games.

The Bison's fatal flaw might be closing contests. They led by 11 over Norfolk State and coughed up the lead earlier in the season, and, while a 19-point loss in the regular-season finale to the Spartans looks ugly, it was a one-point game with nine minutes to go before the home side sunk a barrage of shots.

Howard has the best collective ShotQuality in the conference, so a semifinal matchup with Norfolk State (projected 2.5-point favorite) might act as a de facto MEAC title game.

SWAC (March 13)

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal: (5) Bethune-Cookman vs. (4) Southern
Projected line: Southern (-3.5)

After losing Tai'reon Joseph in early February, Southern beat the teams at the bottom of the league to stay afloat. However, it couldn't get a quality win against any of the upper-tier SWAC squads without its top scorer. Bethune-Cookman went 6-3 to close to the regular season, a run that included a win in Baton Rouge.

Pick: Bethune-Cookman (+3.5)

Texas Southern (+400)

Is the SWAC broken?

The 4-seed is the favorite, which is strange enough. But even wilder is that Texas Southern and Alabama State have the best ShotQuality metrics in the SWAC. Knowing how to win should matter, so instead of being teased by the Hornets' long odds, we'll go with Johnny Jones' Tigers, who went 9-3 in their last 12 games. Texas Southern has won three straight SWAC tournaments, so getting the perennial powerhouse at +400 feels like a good deal.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.