Conference tournament previews: Betting the WAC, Big West, MAC, and Ivy League

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We're down to the final four. OK, not THAT Final Four, but 28 conferences have tipped off as Selection Sunday nears.

The four stragglers are the Big West, the Western Athletic Conference, the Mid-American Conference, and the blink-and-you'll-miss-it four-team showdown in the Ivy League.

We'll use ShotQuality's metrics that assess teams' ability to get and prevent good shots (3-pointers and rim attempts) to help handicap conference tournaments.

Western Athletic Conference (March 13)

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal: (8) Utah Valley vs. (5) California Baptist (+4, 128)
March 13, 9:00 p.m. ET

Dominique Daniels Jr. was averaging 20.7 points per game in WAC play - tops in the conference - on a California Baptist team with a lead over Seattle that would have given the Lancers a six-game winning streak. Then everything changed.

After the Redhawks converted a 3-point play in the final seconds, Daniels missed a layup for the win and suffered a season-ending knee injury. Without Daniels, the Lancers are 2-11. On the surface, Utah Valley as a 4-point favorite seems excessive, but the Wolverines have closed 7-1 with a 23-point win in Riverside.

Pick: Utah Valley (-4)

Seattle (+750)

Grand Canyon's looking for its third trip to the NCAA Tournament in the last four years, and not many teams can stand in its way. Based on season-long metrics and its matchups with the Antelopes, however, Seattle might. The Redhawks took Grand Canyon to overtime in Phoenix two weeks after beating the 'Lopes at home.

The Redhawks' three-game losing streak to end the season is inexplicable, but getting a game under their belt in Las Vegas while the Antelopes enter the semifinal cold might give Seattle an advantage. Either way, whether it's ShotQuality metrics that sit just behind GCU's or 3-point shooting and a rebounding margin that almost equal the WAC regular-season champion, Seattle can compete and is worth a shot at +750.

Big West Conference (March 13)

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal: (8) Cal State Bakersfield vs. (5) UC Riverside (-2, 132)
March 13, 9:00 p.m. ET

Both teams are average nationally at getting good shots for their offense, but Riverside has a higher R3 rate. The Highlanders separate themselves on defense, holding opponents to 0.05 fewer points per possession by ShotQuality. Defending Kaleb Higgins will be key since the Roadrunners have struggled to find a secondary scoring option.

Pick: UC Riverside (-2)

Hawaii (+700)

Atop the conference in ShotQuality, UC San Diego might be the best team in the Big West but, as a D-I newcomer, it's not permitted to play in the postseason. That creates a theoretical gap between top seed and perennial powerhouse UC-Irvine and the rest of the league. However, those same metrics suggest Hawaii can beat anyone.

Hawaii has to play an extra game (boosting its odds), but the Rainbow Warriors shouldn't fear anyone on that side of the bracket.

Mid-American Conference (March 14)

Early-round bet

Quarterfinal: (5) Bowling Green vs. (4) Central Michigan
Projected line: Bowling Green (-1.5)

Neither team in this matchup will shoot the lights out or do anything particularly well, but Bowling Green is slightly better in the important stats and ShotQuality metrics. With a top-50 R3 rate nationally, the Falcons at least know what a good shot looks like.

Both their regular-season matchups went to overtime, with Central Michigan prevailing by a bucket in each, but with 20 points per game from Marcus Hill and three other double-digit scorers, the Falcons are more than capable of getting revenge.

Pick: Bowling Green (-1.5)

Toledo (+275)

We rarely take the top seed, often finding some perceived value down the standings, but in this case, the regular-season champion is the play. A short point spread in a quarterfinal matchup with Kent State and its strong ShotQuality metrics is scary, but Toledo handled the Golden Flashes quite easily in both meetings this season.

The Rockets would then be heavy favorites against either Central Michigan or Bowling Green. Since Akron will have its hands full with Ohio (and vice versa), Toledo might come into a coin-flip final in a much better spot, physically and mentally.

Ivy League (March 15)

Best bet

With a three-game event in New York City, we'll simply try to pick the winner. As both odds and history suggest, Princeton and Yale are a cut above the rest in the Ivy League, and this is a rubber match after two championship meetings in the last two seasons.

We expect Princeton to be a 2.5-point favorite in a championship matchup, but Yale boasts better ShotQuality metrics. While the Tigers are the hotter team, the Bulldogs should be hungrier after losing their regular-season finale in overtime, and they'll be seeking revenge for last year's loss in the title game.

Pick: Yale (+185)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.