March Madness regional betting preview: Is the Midwest haunted?

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We should discuss the Midwest Region around a late-night bonfire. It's loaded with schools with ghost stories from recent NCAA Tournament failures. Parsing through what noise is real and what's imagined is the key to coming up with a Final Four participant.

Odds to win the Midwest Region

We've included a point-spread rating for each team with its odds of making the Final Four. The difference in teams' ratings can help project a fair point spread for a potential matchup later in the tournament.

First-round bets to make

(11) Oregon vs. (6) South Carolina (-1.5, 133.5)
March 21, 4 p.m. ET

South Carolina's key player in a matchup against Oregon may not be a starter. Given the Gamecocks' lack of frontcourt depth, 7-footer Josh Gray is the only player with the size and strength to deal with Ducks star center N'Faly Dante, and that's a problem.

Oregon's season has been filled with changing lineups. Dante missed the start of the campaign and a handful of others have shifted in and out due to injuries. The Ducks have been so pared down that only three players are used offensively: Dante, former Gamecock Jermaine Couisnard, and X-factor freshman Jackson Shelstad.

Shelstad had offers from Kansas, Texas Tech, Florida, and UCLA, but the Oregon native stayed home. With he and Dante now at their best, the Ducks shouldn't be judged on season-long metrics, as head coach Dana Altman has them peaking.

Pick: Oregon (+1.5)

(10) Colorado St. vs. (7) Texas (-2.5, 144.5)
March 21, 6:50 p.m. ET

Virginia got all the (negative) attention for a predictably terrible offensive showing Tuesday. Colorado State was 31st nationally in ShotQuality's adjusted defense (AdjDEF), so it knows how to force a bad shot, so much so that the Rams now have better net ShotQuality than Texas. The Longhorns are also 336th in their percentage of shots taken from three and at the rim.

Everyone questioned Virginia's tournament inclusion, but Texas got in with only three wins over tournament teams, beating Texas Tech and TCU on the road. The Longhorns were essentially the eighth-best team in the Big 12 - a conference with enough of a reputation to warrant eight teams even in what may be a down year.

Pick: Colorado St. (+2.5)

(15) Saint Peter's vs. (2) Tennessee (-21.5, 129.5)
March 21, 9:20 p.m. ET

There's nothing about Saint Peter's to make you think anything that happened in 2022 could happen again, except for its general philosophy. With a different coach and new players, the Peacocks remain a defense-first squad. While the metrics don't suggest they're capable of winning outright, look at the total: 129.5. It suggests a low-scoring game against an opponent whose coach, Rick Barnes, is 3-15 against the spread in his last 18 games.

Tennessee has a shotmaker for late-game situations against top teams in Dalton Knecht, but covering a number three points higher than our projection is more about attitude. With Saint Peter's slowing down the game, the Volunteers should sign up for a comfortable 15-to-18-point win.

Pick: St. Peter's (+21.5)

(13) Samford vs. (4) Kansas (+7.5, 152.5)
March 21, 9:55 p.m. ET

Even Bill Self doesn't have high hopes. Whether due to complacency after winning the 2022 title, or players that left early for the NBA, or the heat from NCAA investigations, Kansas loosened its stranglehold on the Big 12 thanks to a dip in recruiting. Turning to the portal to augment the roster, adding Kevin McCullar and Hunter Dickinson backfired thanks to unforeseen health issues.

With the 12th-highest "Rim and 3" rate and a KenPom offensive efficiency rating (70) only three spots below the Jayhawks, Samford knows what good shots looks like, and at almost 40% from beyond the arc, it can make 'em. With a fair line of -7, and with McCullar out, there's still some value on the Bulldogs.

Pick: Samford (+7.5)

Second-round bet to target

(8) Utah State vs. (1) Purdue
Projected line: Purdue -8.5

First-year Utah State head coach Danny Sprinkle isn't a household name yet after two trips to the NCAA Tournament with Montana State, where he didn't have the horses to compete, but the Aggies can play with Purdue.

The Boilermakers are different this year because they can shoot the three to supplement Zach Edey in the middle. However, Utah State held opponents to 28.2% from deep and has a 7-footer of its own to give Purdue's star a different look defensively. This could be the first scare for a team haunted by past failures.

Pick: Utah State (+8.5)

Best value bet to win the West

Scanning the betting markets, there are some outlier prices on teams like Oregon (+8700) and Gonzaga (+1000), but at a more widely available price, we'll put some faith in Tennessee's Rick Barnes. What could go wrong?

Barnes made three regional finals and one Final Four at Texas, but his time in Knoxville has been star-crossed. Only once did his team have an offense as good as the Vols do this year. Those pre-pandemic teams - with Admiral Schofield and Grant Williams - lost on a rim-bouncing buzzer-beater to Loyola-Chicago in 2018 and overtime to Purdue in 2019 when Ryan Cline and Carsen Edwards couldn't miss.

Last year, the Vols were missing Zakai Zeigler, yet their core of Santiago Vescovi, Josiah-Jordan James, and Jonas Aidoo still beat Duke to make it to the Sweet 16. Having their point guard while adding Knecht and bench scorer Jordan Gainey will be a luxury for Barnes - as is a path to Arizona that lacks a lot of obvious danger.

Pick: Tennessee (+300 or better)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.