March Madness: 5 games you need to get right to win your bracket pool

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Pens and highlighters are coming out of that weird drawer where you keep the stuff you'll eventually need.

It's time for the annual ritual of filling out the March Madness bracket.

The popular picks

You need to pick a champion.

Connecticut was picked to win in 2% of bracket contests in 2023, according to ESPN's Bracket Challenge. This year, they're up to 24% as the tournament favorite (+375). If your pool has 100 entries and you correctly choose the Huskies to win, you still have 23 people to beat.

Using some betting math, you've added 23-to-1 odds to UConn's +370 odds (21.3% implied probability), creating a roughly 90-1 bet. Put another way, you've only got a 4% chance of winning your pool, even after your 21.3% champion wins.

Meanwhile, Duke is as popular as UConn was last year, with 2% of entrants picking the +3000 Blue Devils to win. Using our math - winning at 30-1 and then flipping a coin to determine whether your entry was the best in a 100-person pool - a Duke pick gives you a 60-1 chance to multiply your money by 100 if your pool is winner-take-all.

The five games you need to win

We strive for a perfect bracket, but you don't have to pick all 63 games correctly. After picking the champion, there are only five more games (one in each round) you need to get right to be crowned the champ of your office pool.

First round: (12) McNeese vs. (5) Gonzaga

The vast majority of first-round games fall under one of two categories.

There are games where we hope our Elite Eight teams survive, and there are games where we have the winner losing in the next round anyway, so the single point isn't critical.

However, there are also games like the one from last year involving Memphis and Florida Atlantic, where we thought the winner might have a chance to go on a run but picking between them was hard.

There's a similar situation this time around, as Kansas' injury issues suggest that the winner of McNeese State and Gonzaga could get into a game against Purdue in the Sweet 16.

Second Round: (7) Florida vs. (2) Marquette

Florida and Marquette can both compete with Kentucky in the Sweet 16 and are tough enough to either dominate Duke or throw punches with Houston in the Elite Eight.

Sweet 16: (4) Auburn vs. (1) Connecticut

If you pick anyone other than UConn as champion, you'll need to take out the Huskies at some point. Of the top eight teams in KenPom ratings, four - Houston, Purdue, Tennessee, and Duke - are on the other side of the bracket. Unless you think Arizona or Iowa State are toppling UConn, the Huskies' run ends against Auburn or in the championship. If Auburn wins, you have to assume the Tigers can beat anyone, and riding them gets you the points that everyone who goes with Connecticut won't be getting.

Elite Eight: (2) Arizona vs. (1) North Carolina

Of the four teams in the Final Four, one needs to be your champion. The other should come from a 50/50 game. North Carolina and Arizona are head and shoulders above the rest of the West Region. Eight points are awarded for a Regional Final win in most contests, and with most entrants having one or the other, this is a big fork in the road between you and the others with your champion.

Final Four: Picking the loser of the national championship game

Again, you'll need the 32 points from picking the winner. But you know what rights a lot of the early-round wrongs in your bracket? The 16 points from finding the team that your champion will lose to.

If you select a champion outside of our list above, you've already chosen your differentiator. If you have a winner from the right side of the bracket, you can take a team like UConn to the final since this is more about what you've done with your champion.

If you've picked a popular winner (5% or higher), you'll want to take a team further down the board to be your differentiator. If you're sure Connecticut's going back-to-back, a team that's neither a popular title pick nor a well-regarded brand should be your finalist. However, complicating things is how many within your 24% cohort take Houston, Duke, Kentucky, Purdue, Tennessee, or even Gonzaga in the Final Four.

Having UConn over a big-name team will make things difficult for your entry. However, if you've managed to win the other four games on this list, you should have enough points to stay ahead of the competition.

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