March Madness bets: Friday's Sweet 16 picks
We had a rough showing with our Thursday Sweet 16 picks, but that won't dissuade us from firing on Friday's card. Four teams will advance to the Elite Eight and have a chance to play for a Final Four. Let's dive into Friday's Sweet 16 matchups.
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 2 Michigan State (-3.5, O/U 144.5)
This classic Tom Izzo group defends at a high level, rebounds effectively, and has a balanced scoring attack. Jaden Akins is Michigan State's leading scorer, but it doesn't have a single player averaging more than 13 points per game, while seven guys average at least seven points per game.
It's hard to prepare for that depth when different guys contribute to the scoring column and defend at a high level. Ole Miss guard Sean Pedulla can go nuclear as a scorer, and the Rebels also have a physical defense. Chris Beard is one of the sport's elite coaches and has done a terrific job bringing Ole Miss to relevance.
But Michigan State is a connected, unselfish group led by a Hall of Fame coach. Its run won't end in the Sweet 16.
Lean: Michigan State -3.5
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 2 Tennessee (-4.5, O/U 144.5)
Kentucky beat Tennessee twice in the regular season, but now the Volunteers are 4.5-point favorites. It's not hard to beat a team three times in one season, like many claim, but it's challenging to go 24-for-48 from three in two games against one of the best defenses in the country.
Tennessee holds opponents to 28.3% shooting from three, the nation's third-best mark. It's uncharacteristic for Tennessee to allow as many 3-point makes as it did in its two games against Kentucky. The Wildcats have offensive firepower all over the floor and tough shotmakers, but that shooting production is difficult to replicate.
Kentucky has a top-10 offense but is outside the top 40 on defense. Tennessee has the country's third-best defense, and its offense, led by Chaz Lanier, is capable of high-scoring outputs.
Pick: Tennessee -4.5
No. 5 Michigan vs. No. 1 Auburn (-8.5, O/U 153.5)
Danny Wolf ended Auburn's season in the first round of last year's tournament when he played for Yale. As Michigan's star, he can deliver Auburn the same fate while Bruce Pearl seeks revenge.
Wolf and Vlad Goldin are the perfect frontcourt duo as complementary bigs with different skill sets. However, Auburn's frontcourt with Johni Broome can counteract Michigan's size. Auburn's real advantage is its guard play, which completely overpowers Michigan's. Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara, Miles Kelly, and Tahaad Pettiford average more than 10 points per game. The Wolverines struggle with turnovers. The Tigers' guards should constantly pressure Michigan's ball-handlers, leading to points off turnovers.
Auburn has the matchup advantage, especially if it consistently forces turnovers, but this spread is too large against a talented and resilient Michigan group.
Lean: Michigan +8.5
No. 4 Purdue vs. No. 1 Houston (-8.5, O/U 131.5)
Purdue was lucky to make the Sweet 16 with an easy path against High Point and McNeese State, but that doesn't mean its defensive woes are solved. The Boilermakers rank outside the top 100 in defensive rating since Feb. 1. They have leaky perimeter resistance and an undersized interior presence, problems that will be exacerbated against one of the nation's best teams.
Houston has the nation's 11th-best offense and No. 1 defense. It won 28 of its past 29 games and appears immune to upsets. Purdue's offense can typically keep up with most opponents, but it hasn't faced a defense as daunting as Houston's. This could get ugly in the second half.
Pick: Houston -8.5
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.