Final Four picks: Can Auburn pull off the upset?
NCAA Tournament purists complaining about the lack of Cinderellas should retract their statements after four No. 1 seeds earned Final Four trips for the first time since 2008. The event is at its best when the top teams make it to the final stage, creating thrilling matchups when the stakes are the highest. This could be one of the most memorable Final Fours and championships as the four best teams descend on San Antonio.
We already wrote about potential Most Outstanding Player winners. Now, let's get to Saturday evening's two matchups with our picks for who will play in Monday's national championship.
No. 1 Auburn vs. No. 1 Florida (-2.5, O/U 159.5)
Johni Broome's health is the storyline entering the Final Four matchup between these SEC foes. The All-American injured his non-shooting elbow in Auburn's Elite Eight victory over Michigan State but returned later in the game. While something to monitor, it's unlikely to impact his or the Tigers' performance.
Auburn coasted past its competition en route to the Final Four. Before losing three of its final four games entering the NCAA Tournament, Auburn was the most dominant team all season. It's fair to wonder if the right team is favored.
Florida defeated Auburn 90-81 in February, which likely factored into this spread. However, that was an off night for Auburn's guards. Denver Jones and Chad Baker-Mazara, who average more than 10 points per game, combined for eight against the Gators. Auburn shot worse than usual from three, while Florida shot better from distance. The Tigers are a 37.8% 3-point shooting squad, but they connected on only 31% of their looks. The Gators are a 35% 3-point shooting team and made 39% of their threes in the initial matchup. The 3-point shooting variance should revert closer to the norm in this matchup.
Florida is the fourth-best offensive rebounding team in the country, but Auburn has the personnel to limit Florida's big-man depth. The Tigers outrebounded the Gators on the offensive glass in their first contest.
It's difficult to find more even opponents in the Final Four. Gators point guard Walter Clayton Jr. is the best clutch shotmaker in this game, which could be the difference. But Auburn has more guard depth, a better defense, and the more experienced coach. Let's roll with the Tigers.
Pick: Auburn +2.5
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Duke (-5.5, O/U 136.5)
How can a team that's lost one game since Dec. 1 - a one-point overtime loss to eventual Elite Eight finalist Texas Tech - be a 5.5-point underdog to anyone? Well, it's possible when its opponent is the nation's most talented squad and has the second-best net rating in college basketball history.
Houston has lost four games all season, all by five points or less. Three of its four losses came in overtime. But Duke has destroyed its competition. It went 19-1 in the ACC and has won its four tournament games by an average margin of 23.5. Its most impressive win was a 20-point Elite Eight victory over Alabama, the nation's sixth-best team.
Duke has the No. 1 offense in the country while Houston has the No. 1 defense. It's a clash between two conflicting styles. While Duke's offense touts three projected top-10 picks, its defense stood out against Alabama. The Blue Devils held the fourth-best offense in the country to 65 points and 35% shooting from the field with a connected, physical defense that prevented dribble penetration and made quick rotations.
Kelvin Sampson's defensive schemes and Houston's physicality present a nightmare for opposing offenses, but it hasn't seen an offense with as much firepower as Duke's. Everyone in the Blue Devils' rotation fits into their roles perfectly, and they move the ball exceptionally well while relying on NBA-ready talents Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel to carry the scoring load. It's hard to imagine any defense in the country could shut down Duke.
Offensively, Houston relies on a balanced scoring attack among L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan, and J'Wan Roberts. However, there have been times when Houston's offense hits a lull and depends on its defense to earn wins. That happened in the Sweet 16 against Purdue when the Cougars scored only 62 points and won on a last-second shot against a porous Boilermakers' defense. Houston will have a tough time scoring and competing against Duke if the Blue Devils showcase the same defensive intensity they did against Alabama.
Houston has the coaching and roster to pull off the upset, but Duke has a better chance at beating the Cougars by double digits than Houston winning outright.
Pick: Duke -5.5
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.