National championship betting preview: Florida slightly favored over Houston
You're not the only one still attempting to decipher how Duke isn't playing for a national title after a complete collapse in the final minute. But now Monday night's championship matchup is set between Houston and Florida, two of the nation's top teams all season. Let's dive into our preview and pick.
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 1 Florida (-1.5, O/U 140.5)
Florida's resiliency has trumped its head coach's and various players' inexperience. Auburn punched the Gators in the mouth, including heading into halftime with an eight-point lead. But Florida doesn't get knocked down. Thanks to Todd Golden's sharp adjustments, the squad completed a comeback win for the second straight game and dominated Auburn in the second half.
Walter Clayton Jr.'s shotmaking somehow becomes more impressive every contest. He became the first player since Larry Bird to score at least 30 points in the Elite Eight and Final Four. He's the best player in Monday's title game and the favorite (-110) to win Most Outstanding Player.
Duke led Houston by 14 with roughly eight minutes remaining in the Final Four showdown. The Cougars' offense struggled to keep pace with the Blue Devils, a problem many forecasted heading into the contest. However, it didn't matter with a defense as tough and physical as Houston's. The Cougars held Duke to 67 points, the Blue Devils' lowest point total since Jan. 25. Cooper Flagg had a typical Flagg outing - 27 points, seven assists, four rebounds - but only one other Duke player reached double figures.
It was a matchup between the nation's best defense and the top offense. Ultimately, defense prevailed. And that's why Florida could be in trouble.
For all of Florida's offensive brilliance - it has the country's second-best offense - it's yet to play a defense as physically daunting as Houston's. The Cougars have the perimeter defenders to slow down Clayton and the Gators' other guards.
Florida took advantage of the rebounding battle against Auburn, an area it has dominated in most games. The Gators have the fourth-best offensive rebounding rate in the nation, but it's hard to gain extra possessions against Houston, which has a top-20 total rebounding rate and frequently grabs offensive boards. The Cougars should win if they neutralize Florida's rebounding strength and limit second-chance points.
Oddsmakers have loved the Gators for weeks, and they've largely been right. But Houston should be favored as the better overall team in this matchup (unfortunately, I also said that about Auburn).
The Cougars often experience offensive lulls, but their defense has carried them to 31 wins in their last 32 games. I'd expect Houston's defense to prevent Florida from getting into its actions and limit the Gators' guards. The Cougars will likely trap and double Clayton (his under 22.5 points on theScore Bet/ESPN Bet in jurisdictions that allow player props is worth a look), forcing Florida's bigs and other contributors to make plays. Houston flies around in its rotations, so the Gators, particularly Alijah Martin and Will Richard, must catch fire from three to win. While it shot 38% against Auburn, Florida is just a 35% 3-point shooting team.
The Cougars' defense and toughness have brought them this far. It'll lead them to one more win and a celebration in San Antonio.
Pick: Houston +1.5
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on X @soshtry for more betting coverage.