5 teams that need a conference tourney run to make March Madness

We're less than a week away from Selection Sunday, which means the March Madness bracket is just around the corner.

For basketball fans, mid-major teams that have secured auto-bids, and the best squads in the country, the anticipation is palpable. But other teams are entering their conference tournaments with a lot of anxiety.

This week represents the last chance for a handful of inconsistent squads. Make a deep run in your conference tournament and you have a chance to get invited to the Big Dance. Lose early and a March Madness bid is out of the question.

Here are five teams that need to take advantage of their last opportunity to go dancing.

Auburn

Auburn was flying at the end of January, notching a nine-point road victory at Florida that's one of the best wins by any team this season and an impressive home win against a good Texas squad. Then everything fell apart.

The Tigers have lost eight of their last 10 games. During that span, they managed a one-point win over Kentucky and dispatched last-place LSU. Auburn now sits at 16-15, and a team that's barely over .500 probably shouldn't be considered for an at-large NCAA Tournament bid.

That said, Auburn played the second-hardest schedule in the country, per KenPom. The team has six wins against projected March Madness teams, including that huge one over Florida. It's a truly polarizing resume.

If Auburn loses its SEC Tournament opener to 100th-ranked Mississippi State, its season is over. The Tigers will not make the Big Dance at 16-16. Of course, they should win that tilt, but arguably their worst loss of the season came against the Bulldogs in February as Josh Hubbard racked up 46 points.

Should the Tigers advance past the first round, a duel with Tennessee is on deck. Auburn has already lost to the Volunteers, who may be missing star Nate Ament due to injury. If Auburn can win both of those contests, it may be safe. Advance further and take down Vanderbilt and the Tigers should be in the tournament. But they won't make it that far if they play the way they have since the calendar flipped to February.

Cincinnati

Cincinnati blew a 14-point second-half lead at home to non-NCAA Tournament-caliber West Virginia on Feb. 5, and the Bearcats' season was all but over. Head coach Wes Miller became visibly emotional while talking to reporters as though he was about to lose his job.

And then Cincinnati finished the regular season on a 6-2 heater with massive blowout wins over Kansas and BYU. The Bearcats have at least given themselves a fighting chance.

Still, 14 losses - four to non-tournament teams - and a brutal defeat to lowly Eastern Michigan leave them on the outside looking in. Winning a first-round matchup against a Utah squad that went 2-16 in the Big 12 won't be enough to help their case. Winning the next one against UCF likely won't push them over the edge either.

That makes a potential quarterfinal matchup against No. 1 seed Arizona a do-or-die tilt for Cincinnati. If the Bearcats can beat a 29-2 team that won this matchup by 26 points in the regular season, then they'll go dancing.

Obviously, that's improbable. If Cincinnati had real tournament ambitions, maybe the team could have achieved them by being more consistent. Instead, the Bearcats need to pull off one of the best wins of the season in order to advance.

Stanford

The other teams on this list faced significant preseason expectations and would largely be classified as disappointments. The opposite is true for this Stanford squad, which was tabbed to finish second last in the ACC preseason poll and went 9-9. The Cardinal reeled off six wins in their last eight conference games.

Led by freshman phenom Ebuka Okorie, Stanford has three wins against projected NCAA Tournament teams but also some subpar losses to Seattle, UNLV, and Notre Dame. Its resume deserves bubble consideration, but not much more.

That said, if Stanford can start its ACC Tournament run with wins over Pittsburgh and NC State - and the Cardinal have beaten both teams in the last two weeks - that would set up a meeting with No. 2-seeded Virginia. The Cavaliers, a surefire NCAA Tournament squad, defeated Stanford by 15 in January.

Beating Virginia would likely be enough for Stanford to hear its name called on Selection Sunday, although it would be a tall task. It's a particularly tough matchup for a downhill guard like Okorie. The Cavaliers are second nationally in block percentage, and he went 5-of-20 from the field in their January meeting as Virginia picked up seven blocks.

Still, nothing's off the table in a surprising campaign from a Cardinal squad with limited big-name talent.

Indiana

Quality competition has been an issue for Indiana all year. The Hoosiers are minus-103 in their 19 games against Quad 1 and 2 opponents and plus-308 in their other 12 games. They've crushed their inferior opponents but are low on overall quality wins.

That's not the kind of dichotomy you want when you need to make a big conference tournament run in a league that's as deep as the Big Ten. But the Hoosiers have a relatively good draw.

Indiana gets a cupcake contest against the winner of Northwestern versus Penn State on Wednesday and should then face Purdue on Thursday. The Hoosiers beat the Boilermakers by five points in their best win of the season but also lost the rematch by 29 in February.

Beating Purdue may be enough to get the Hoosiers into the NCAA Tournament. If not, their next opponent would be a Nebraska team lacking the athleticism to take advantage of an Indiana group that's low on physicality. Wins over both the Cornhuskers and Boilermakers would surely be enough to ensure Indiana goes dancing.

San Diego State

Although San Diego State is the only mid-major program on this list, the Aztecs arguably faced the highest expectations of any of these teams. The squad opened the season No. 28 in AP Poll voting and was regarded as the heavy favorite to win the Mountain West.

Instead, San Diego State got off to a 6-4 start and finished second in the league with a 14-6 conference record. That's not too shabby, but a single win against a projected NCAA Tournament team isn't enough to warrant at-large inclusion.

Of course, if the Aztecs win their league tournament, they get an automatic March Madness bid and the bubble conversation is over. San Diego State has a far better chance to achieve that than Auburn, Cincinnati, Stanford, or Indiana.

The Aztecs can even potentially get in if they lose the Mountain West final - as long as their opponent is March Madness lock Utah State. If a loss to the Aggies is close and the Aztecs beat Colorado State and New Mexico to get there, that will likely be enough unless tons of bid-stealers win their league tournaments this week.

However, if San Diego State loses to the winner of Colorado State-Fresno State or New Mexico-Boise State, the Aztecs' tournament hopes will evaporate. Talk about pressure.

Matthew Winick is a college basketball analyst and consultant. You can find his work on X at @matthewwinick.