A brief history of double-digit seeds in the Sweet 16
When No. 11 Dayton upset No. 3 Syracuse in Buffalo on Saturday night, the appropriate reaction was, of course, shock and surprise.
After all, the Orange were heavily favored, expected to have little trouble advancing to the Sweet 16. Dayton, meanwhile, wasn't expected to get out of the Round of 64, and even after they took out No. 6 Ohio State, few thought they would roll to the tournament's second weekend.
A pair of wins by a combined three points, however, have the Flyers awaiting either No. 2 Kansas or No. 10 Stanford in Memphis next weekend.
The upset was surprising, of course, but the fact that a double-digit seed, it doesn't matter which, made the Sweet Sixteen is not. Quite the contrary, actually, as at least one has made a run to the second weekend since 2008.
2013
Just last year, there were a trio of low seeds in the regional semifinals. No. 12 Oregon was cannon fodder for eventual national champion Louisville in that round; Florida steamrolled everyone's favorite, No. 15 "Dunk City" Florida Gulf Coast; No. 13 La Salle laid down for...No. 9 Wichita State, who were essentially a committee coin-flip away from being a fourth double-digit seed to go that far, eventually reaching the Final Four.
2012
One year earlier, No. 10 Xavier nearly topped Baylor in the Sweet 16, while that year's Midwest Region had a potential 11-13 Elite Eight matchup, only for No. 11 N.C. State and No. 13 Ohio to both lose close games in the regional semifinals.
2011 - VCU reaches the Final Four
While No. 11 Marquette was pasted by UNC and No. 12 Richmond was hammered by Kansas, this was a banner year for low seeds. No. 11 VCU narrowly edged No. 10 Florida State in an unlikely 10-11 Sweet 16 battle, and they subsequently beat Kansas before bowing out to Butler in the Final Four.
1999 - Five slippers, no fits / Gonzaga starts a run
1999 was a banner year for lower seeds, with five different double-digit seeds advancing to the Sweet 16. Unfortunately, they didn't have a whole lot of success from there. No. 12 Southwest Missouri State was easily dispatched by Duke, Michigan State smothered No. 13 Oklahoma, Kentucky steamrolled No. 10 Miami-Ohio and Temple stomped No. 10 Purdue.
The only successful team was No. 10 Gonzaga, the first of three straight years they would advance to the tournament's second weekend despite being seeded low. They would bow out to eventual champion Connecticut in the Elite Eight in 1999, lose in the Sweet 16 to Purdue in 2000 and fall to Michigan State in the Sweet 16 in 2001.
No. 11 is the threshold
Despite the early success of many low seeds, no team seeded worse than eleventh has ever slipped through the second weekend. VCU did it in 2011, George Mason made the run in 2006 and LSU was the first way back in 1986. Each team held close until halftime, with LSU even holding a major lead, but none of the three were able to make the championship game.
No team seeded worse than twelfth has ever even won a game on the second weekend of the event, with double-digit seeds going 13-52 in Sweet 16 games and 3-10 in the Elite Eight.
Low Seeds in the Sweet 16 over time
None of this is new, however. Since 1985 when the field first expanded to 64 teams, only twice has their been a Sweet 16 with all single-digit seeds. In other words, Gonzaga's three-peat as a double-digit seed in the Sweet 16 may still be rare, but they serve as an avatar for the nature of the tournament.
Per CBS, here are the number of double-digit seeds to have reached the second weekend of the tournament by year since 1985.
| Year | # |
|---|---|
| 1985 | 3 |
| 1986 | 3 |
| 1987 | 2 |
| 1988 | 2 |
| 1989 | 1 |
| 1990 | 3 |
| 1991 | 3 |
| 1992 | 1 |
| 1993 | 1 |
| 1994 | 2 |
| 1995 | 0 |
| 1996 | 1 |
| 1997 | 3 |
| 1998 | 3 |
| 1999 | 5 |
| 2000 | 2 |
| 2001 | 3 |
| 2002 | 3 |
| 2003 | 2 |
| 2004 | 1 |
| 2005 | 2 |
| 2006 | 2 |
| 2007 | 0 |
| 2008 | 3 |
| 2009 | 1 |
| 2010 | 3 |
| 2011 | 4 |
| 2012 | 3 |
| 2013 | 3 |
| 2014 | 1+ |
That's an average of 2.24 double-digit seeds reaching the Sweet 16 since the field expanded, meaning you shouldn't at all be surprised if there's another big upset on Sunday (and even if there isn't, one of No. 14 Mercer and No. 11 Tennessee will be joining Dayton in the next round).
It's not even a matter of parity ruling the day in the NCAA - individual games are just kind of random, and putting together back-to-back upsets requires a favorable mix of skill, luck and timing.
That luck often runs out, though, which is why only three teams seeded in the double-digits, all No. 11, have ever reached the Final Four, and no team seeded lower than eighth has ever reached the championship game.