Big 12 wannabes: The chances for all 18 expansion contenders

The Big 12 will hear pitches from 18 schools wishing to join the conference as it continues its march toward expansion, according to reports Friday. But how many of these schools really have a legitimate shot at obtaining a membership?

Well, it varies. Let's take a look:

Never gonna happen

18. Arkansas State
17. Northern Illinois
16. New Mexico
15. East Carolina
14. Air Force

Lightning struck once to give these schools the opportunity to pitch the Big 12. It isn't going to strike twice and get any of them into the conference.

Probably won't happen, but can't rule it out

13. Colorado State
12. Tulane
11. San Diego State
10. UCF
9. SMU

San Diego State might be the most intriguing option of this group, since it would take the Big 12 into the large Southern California market. UCF offers a similar opportunity in Florida, where the Big 12 would also like to establish a presence. Still, these schools' lack of athletic success, especially on the gridiron, will likely keep them from gaining entry into the league.

Maybe

8. Boise State
7. Temple
6. South Florida
5. Connecticut
4. BYU

Stadium capacity issues, geographical challenges, and anti-LGBTQ policies are some of the factors that will cause the Big 12 to hesitate on adding these institutions. Their solid athletic track records in recent years will keep each of them in the conversation, though. Commissioner Bob Bowlsby would love to add Connecticut to an already stacked basketball lineup, but Huskies football leaves a lot to be desired.

Good chance

3. Houston
2. Memphis
1. Cincinnati

All three of these schools possess historically competitive football and basketball programs that are still performing at adequate levels in a Group of 5 conference. It would be an upset if the Big 12's two newcomers didn't come from this crop. Cincinnati, which previously had a nice run in the old Big East, appears to have the support of several Big 12 members.