CFP National Championship action report: Public all over Clemson
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The college football season finally comes to a boil Monday night at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Fla., with the championship game - a rematch of last year’s entertaining battle. Covers talks about where the action is with Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology in Las Vegas, and Mike Jerome, lines manager for offshore sportsbook TopBet.eu.
No. 2 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide – Open: -8; Move: -7; Move: -6.5; Move: -7
Alabama is looking for its second straight national title and its fifth in the last eight seasons, riding into Tampa on a 26-game SU win streak that began in Week 4 of the 2015 season. In the Dec. 31 Peach Bowl, the first of the College Football Playoff semifinals, the Crimson Tide (14-0 SU, 10-5 ATS) stifled Washington 24-7 as a 12.5-point favorite.
Clemson will seek a measure of revenge for its 45-40 loss to ‘Bama in last year’s title tilt, in which the Tigers covered the 6-point spread with a touchdown in the waning seconds. Dabo Swinney’s troops had just one hiccup this season, a stunning 43-42 home loss to Pittsburgh laying 21.5 points on Nov. 12. Clemson (13-1 SU, 7-7 ATS) recovered to reach the CFP again, then boatraced Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl 31-0 as a 1-point underdog on Dec. 31.
The Tigers’ victory has certainly impressed bettors over the past week at CG books, including shops at The Cosmopolitan, Venetian and the M.
“This is a fun game, because it looked like Alabama was gonna be well over a touchdown favorite after they beat Washington. But then you saw Clemson’s great performance over Ohio State,” Simbal said. “We opened the game at (Alabama) -8, and it’s been a flood of Clemson money since that point. The line was down as low as 6 at one point.”
The line bounced back-and-forth between 6.5 and 7 from Monday through Friday before settling in at 7 through the weekend, with CG adjusting the juice, which was +105 on the Tide on Sunday afternoon.
“There’s been over two times more money bet on Clemson. So Clemson is definitely the public side of this game,” Simbal said.
opBet.eu opened Alabama -6.5 and has held firm at that number throughout the week.
“At the moment, 64 percent of the cash and 68 percent of bets on the spread are taking Clemson,” Jerome said Sunday morning. “In a premier game such as this, getting heavy volume, we want to have a decision on as much cash as possible. So instead of moving the number to Crimson Tide -6, I could see us using Bama -6.5 (-105), juicing the ‘dog a bit, as they are the more popular bet.”
Simbal said the sharps haven’t really weighed in yet on this game, creating an intriguing moneyline situation.
“It’s interesting, because so many public bets have come in on Clemson, the moneyline is the one thing that they’re playing,” he said. “Generally, we get a team that’s a 6.5-, 7-point favorite on the moneyline at -250 or greater. Alabama in this game is only -220 on the moneyline, because of how many moneyline bets have come in on Clemson.
“I tend to think that some of the sharp players might wait for that pointspread to stay in the same ballpark, the moneyline might come down a little bit because of how many people are playing Clemson to win. And then (the sharps) can play Alabama on the other end.”
Today, CG adjusted the moneyline on ‘Bama to up slightly to -230, but still below what’s typical for a touchdown chalk. And TopBet.eu found itself working toward CG’s moneyline number, as the offshore book is in a pretty unenviable situation.
“We have a gigantic decision on the moneyline, which opened Tide -255/Tigers +215,” Jerome said “Wednesday, we moved It to -245/+205, then on Thursday to -240/+200. On Saturday afternoon, we moved to -235/+195, and earlier this morning, we moved to -230/+190.
“Since we currently have 85 percent of moneyline cash and 88 percent of moneyline bets backing Clemson, I could see us going as low as -220 on Alabama moneyline at kickoff.”
If you’re having difficulty picking a side or total (50.5) in this game, Simbal said CG’s books around Vegas will have a lengthy proposition bet menu.
“This is a very heavily bet game. It is on a Monday, which kind of hurts a little bit being in Vegas,” Simbal said. “But the props are a huge part of it, and the standard props that people love betting are gonna be available here. The biggest one is the player to score the first touchdown, and there’s a litany of guys who could do it. We know Alabama plays a lot of running backs, we know that (Clemson QB DeShaun) Watson keeps the ball, he can throw very well, he can hand it off.
“So you have so many different options for the player to score the first touchdown, and there’s not a huge favorite in that market. That’s why that’s a real popular one. And also the general props the people like betting – will there be overtime, will there be a 2-point conversion, things like that are very fun for these kind of games.”