Brett McMurphy's bowl projections: Clemson, Oklahoma headed for title clash
On Sunday, here's how I see the College Football Playoff selection committee will rank the nation's top four teams: (1) Clemson, (2) Oklahoma, (3) Georgia, (4) Ohio State.
I think two-loss and Big Ten champion Ohio State gets in over Alabama (11-1), which finished second in the SEC's West Division. That puts Alabama fifth and out of the playoffs for the first time in the brief history of the College Football Playoff.
Let's cut to the chase. After spending all day Saturday checking with bowl sources on the most likely scenarios, here are my updated bowl projections.
All of the projections are based on Washington earning a New Year's Six bid. The final New Year's Six bid is between Washington, Stanford, TCU, and Notre Dame. If I'm correct, Sunday's official pairings should resemble my projections below. If Washington does not get in a New Year's Six bowl, well, uh, wait until next year.
(Teams that have accepted bowl invitations are listed in bold type.)
College Football Playoff
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Championship Bowl (Atlanta) | Jan. 8 | CFP semifinal winners |
Projection: Clemson vs. Oklahoma
Semifinals
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Rose Bowl (Pasadena) | Jan. 1 | CFP semifinal |
Projection: Oklahoma (CFP No. 2) vs. Georgia (CFP No. 3)
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Sugar Bowl (New Orleans) | Jan. 1 | CFP semifinal |
Projection: Clemson (CFP No. 1) vs. Ohio State (CFP No. 4)
New Year's Six bowls
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Peach Bowl (Atlanta) | Jan. 1 | at-large vs. at-large* |
Projection: Auburn vs. UCF
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Fiesta Bowl (Glendale) | Dec. 30 | at-large vs. at-large |
Projection: USC vs. Wisconsin
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Orange Bowl (Miami Gardens) | Dec. 30 | ACC vs. Big Ten/SEC/ND |
Projection: Miami vs. Alabama
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Cotton Bowl (Arlington) | Dec. 29 | at-large vs. at-large |
Projection: Penn State vs. Washington
Other bowls
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Citrus Bowl (Orlando) | Jan. 1 | ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC |
Projection: Michigan State vs. LSU
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Outback Bowl (Tampa) | Jan. 1 | Big Ten vs. SEC |
Projection: Michigan vs. South Carolina
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Liberty Bowl (Memphis) | Dec. 30 | Big 12 vs. SEC |
Projection: Iowa State vs. Memphis**
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| TaxSlayer Bowl (Jacksonville) | Dec. 30 | ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC |
Projection: Virginia Tech vs. Mississippi State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Bowl (Tucson) | Dec. 29 | MWC vs. Sun Belt |
Projection: Utah State vs. New Mexico State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Belk Bowl (Charlotte) | Dec. 29 | ACC vs. SEC |
Projection: Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Music City Bowl (Nashville) | Dec. 29 | ACC/Big Ten vs. SEC |
Projection: Purdue vs. Kentucky
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Sun Bowl (El Paso) | Dec. 29 | ACC vs. Pac-12 |
Projection: Louisville vs. Arizona State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Alamo Bowl (San Antonio) | Dec. 28 | Big 12 vs. Pac-12 |
Projection: TCU vs. Stanford
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Camping World Bowl (Orlando) | Dec. 28 | ACC vs. Big 12 |
Projection: Notre Dame vs. Oklahoma State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Holiday Bowl (San Diego) | Dec. 28 | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 |
Projection: Northwestern vs. Washington State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Military Bowl (Annapolis) | Dec. 28 | ACC vs. American |
Projection: Virginia vs. Navy
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Foster Farms Bowl (Santa Clara) | Dec. 27 | Big Ten vs. Pac-12 |
Projection: San Diego State** vs. Arizona
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Independence Bowl (Shreveport) | Dec. 27 | ACC vs. SEC |
Projection: Florida State vs. Southern Miss**
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Pinstripe Bowl (Bronx) | Dec. 27 | ACC vs. Big Ten |
Projection: NC State vs. Iowa
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Texas Bowl (Houston) | Dec. 27 | Big 12 vs. SEC |
Projection: Texas vs. Missouri
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Cactus Bowl (Phoenix) | Dec. 26 | Big 12 vs. Pac-12 |
Projection: West Virginia vs. UCLA
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Heart of Dallas Bowl (Dallas) | Dec. 26 | Big Ten vs. Big 12 |
Projection: Utah** vs. Kansas State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Quick Lane Bowl (Detroit) | Dec. 26 | ACC vs. Big Ten |
Projection: Duke vs. Central Michigan**
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Hawaii Bowl (Honolulu) | Dec. 24 | American vs. MWC |
Projection: Houston vs. Fresno State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Armed Forces Bowl (Fort Worth) | Dec. 23 | C-USA vs. Army |
Projection: UTSA vs. Army
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham Bowl (Birmingham) | Dec. 23 | American vs. SEC |
Projection: USF vs. Texas Tech**
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar General Bowl (Mobile) | Dec. 23 | MAC vs. Sun Belt |
Projection: Toledo vs. Appalachian State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Bahamas Bowl (Nassau) | Dec. 22 | C-USA vs. MAC |
Projection: UAB vs. Ohio
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Idaho Potato Bowl (Boise) | Dec. 22 | MAC vs. MWC |
Projection: Northern Illinois vs. Wyoming
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Gasparilla Bowl (St. Petersburg) | Dec. 21 | American vs. C-USA |
Projection: Boston College** vs. FIU
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Frisco Bowl (Frisco) | Dec. 20 | American vs. MAC/MWC |
Projection: SMU vs. Louisiana Tech
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Boca Raton Bowl (Boca Raton) | Dec. 19 | American vs. C-USA |
Projection: Temple vs. Florida Atlantic
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Camellia Bowl (Montgomery) | Dec. 16 | MAC vs. Sun Belt |
Projection: Akron vs. Arkansas State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Cure Bowl (Orlando) | Dec. 16 | American vs. Sun Belt |
Projection: Marshall** vs. Georgia State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Bowl (Las Vegas) | Dec. 16 | MWC vs. Pac-12 |
Projection: Boise State vs. Oregon
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| New Mexico Bowl (Albuquerque) | Dec. 16 | C-USA vs. MWC |
Projection: Western Kentucky vs. Colorado State
| BOWL (CITY) | DATE | MATCHUP |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Bowl (New Orleans) | Dec. 16 | C-USA vs. Sun Belt |
Projection: North Texas vs. Troy
*The highest-rated champion from the Group of 5 conferences (American Athletic, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West, and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in either the Cotton, Fiesta, or Peach Bowl. If Army is bowl eligible, it must play in the Armed Forces Bowl.
**Replaces team from league that can't fill bowl.
Brett McMurphy has been a college football reporter for nearly 30 years. He is a longtime voter in The Associated Press poll as well as a Heisman Trophy voter. Find him on Twitter @brett_mcmurphy or on Facebook.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)