Pac-12 betting preview: Predicting win totals for every team
Welcome to the Pac-12, where mayhem ensues once the sun goes down and Heisman contenders get no love due to everyone being half asleep.
Washington
Recommended play: Over 10.5 wins
Chris Petersen could go 15-0 in 2018 and I'd still start the "underrated" chant. The Huskies had what I considered a down year last season - losing on the road to Arizona State and Stanford and dropping the Fiesta Bowl to Penn State - and still nabbed 10 wins.
They may have lost wide receiver/punt returner Dante Pettis, but they still have a pair of experienced studs on offense in quarterback Jake Browning and running back Myles Gaskin.
On defense, Washington lost Vita Vea in the middle but reloaded at virtually every level, including one of the deepest secondaries in the country.
The Huskies get Auburn in Week 1 and a game against Utah in Week 3 they can't expect to sleepwalk through. The rest of the schedule is favorable, though, as they get Stanford at home while avoiding USC. I'll bank on a huge season from Petersen's most complete team yet and recommend taking a second look at Washington to make the College Football Playoff at +270.
USC
Recommended play: Under 8.5 wins
The good news for the Trojans: They're undefeated in their last 16 home games.
The bad news: This under bet could hit by Week 8 if USC doesn't show up away from the Coliseum.
Despite losing quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receivers Steven Mitchell and Deontay Burnett, USC is typically a lock to fill its voids with athleticism. The same will hold true in 2018 around true freshman quarterback JT Daniels. After registering 5.6 yards per carry as a freshman, former five-star rusher Stephen Carr figures to play an even more important role. Daniels also has weapons on the outside in receivers Michael Pittman and Tyler Vaughns, who combined for 1,213 yards and seven touchdowns last season. Tight end Tyler Petite (23 catches, 307 yards, and three touchdowns in '17) is yet another weapon in the passing game.
My main concern is the schedule, as USC will visit Stanford, Texas, Arizona, and Utah - all before a season finale against Notre Dame. The Trojans have benefited from home cooking as of late, but it's performing on the road behind a true freshman that has me wary of them in 2018.
Stanford
Recommended play: Over 8.5 wins
Stanford is going to do what it's been doing for years: run the ball behind a potent offensive line and throw it just enough to wear out opposing defenses.
As easy as it is to replace running back production at the collegiate level, Bryce Love passing up the NFL to return to Palo Alto was the glue that pieced this offense together, with K.J. Costello returning under center.
I think head coach David Shaw is being undervalued yet again and I'll gladly recommend playing the Cardinal to go over 8.5.
Oregon
Recommended play: Over 8.5 wins
I'll bite on the ducklings this year, for reasons outside the obvious.
A legit Heisman candidate and potentially the first quarterback off the board in the 2019 NFL Draft, Justin Herbert's importance to the Oregon offense was clear last season. The Ducks averaged 52 points per contest in games Herbert started, and just 15 points during a five-game stint he missed due to injury.
But it's everything aside from the QB that seals the envelope for me - namely, new head coach Mario Cristobal and defensive coordinator Jim Leavitt, and a defensive front seven that includes standouts Troy Dye and Jalen Jelks.
Side note: When Oregon's Twitter account announces the Ducks will wear their all-apple green jerseys that week, I'll bet a copious amount of money on them. I don't endorse this, but it'll still happen nevertheless.
Utah
Recommended play: Over 7 wins
This is my favorite over pick of the Pac-12. I think coach Kyle Whittingham is due for one of those years.
Quarterback Tyler Huntley has big-play potential, and the biggest addition will be sure-handed wide receiver Britain Covey, who missed the last two seasons while completing his LDS Church mission. This offense has all the ingredients for a huge surge under coordinator Troy Taylor, who helped Eastern Washington shatter all sorts of offensive records in 2016.
Whittingham has won fewer than seven games just twice over the last 13 seasons. I think he clears this total with ease in 2018.
Arizona
Recommended play: Under 7.5 wins
I'll sell high on the Khalil Tate-led Wildcats, but he's not the wild card in this scenario - it's offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone.
One of college football's most frustrating play-callers was under fire for his handling of situations at both UCLA and Texas A&M, though he also coached recent standouts Brett Hundley and Josh Rosen. It boils down to him not screwing it up.
Arizona and first-year Wildcats coach Kevin Sumlin are favored by double digits in three of the first four games. Then, S&P+ suggests Arizona will play six games that will be decided by 3.2 points or fewer. If defenses can force Tate to beat them with his arm, the Wildcats won't surpass 7.5 wins.
UCLA
Recommended play: Under 5.5 wins
The only thing I like about UCLA this season is the powder-blue uniforms. Everything else is "meh."
The nonconference schedule isn't a cakewalk, the head coach is a question mark, and they haven't named a starting quarterback (it'll either be Michigan transfer Wilton Speight or freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson).
I've had trust issues with the Bruins when things were looking up. In no way would I invest in a team that's breaking in new faces on both the coaching staff and in key positions on the field.
Arizona State
Recommended play: Over 4.5 wins
Take it from someone who lives 17 minutes from campus and watches every ASU game (not by choice, but because it's what my cable provider offers at 10:45 ET on Saturday nights): This team will get to five wins in absurd fashion.
Arizona State will beat Michigan State and Washington in the span of three weeks but lose to UTSA by 35 at home in Week 1. It'll give up 279 yards to the ghost of Rashaad Penny against San Diego State in a double-overtime loss, but put up 70 on Stanford. The fifth win will come on a game-winning Hail Mary in the final week. For crying out loud, this team last year brought back its sunburst logo helmets and painted its end zones in flames only to get flogged by the Aztecs in Tempe. How does that happen?
Everyone and their mother seems to loathe the Herm Edwards hire. I'll go against the grain and dub the Sun Devils an over team for 2018.
Washington State
Recommended play: Under 6.5 wins
Gone from 2017 is a bulk of offensive production, but the Air Raid offense is a glitch that automatically bears a 67 percent completion rate for quarterbacks and six wide receivers with 45 or more catches.
A close friend of mine, a longtime Oregon fan, said earlier in the summer that Washington State's regular season wins under 6.5 "is free money, and I just bet my house, dog, kids, and Dale Earnhardt Sr. commemorative plate collection on it." He then padded his statement by adding: "I wouldn't put up my Dale Sr. plates unless it was a stone cold lead pipe lock."
The Earnhardt news was the clincher for me. I endorse all of this, minus the dog- and children-wagering practices. But betting the house? Sure.
Oregon State
Recommended play: Under 2.5 wins
Meet your worst Power Five team of 2018, and I'm not sure it's even close.
Colorado
Recommended play: Over 4.5 wins
Sheesh, was Colorado's window of relevancy the smallest of all time? This team was in the Pac-12 title game two seasons ago!
I'm more wishy-washy on this total than any team in the conference, but I think with New Hampshire, Colorado State, and Oregon State on the schedule, the Buffs can snag those three then get two more out of Arizona State (home), UCLA (home), Washington State (home), and Cal (road).
Cal
Recommended play: Over 6.5 wins
I initially thought coach Justin Wilcox would need one more year to get the Golden Bears back to bowl eligibility, but I now firmly believe he has the pieces intact to get this one over the total.
After making stops at Tennessee, Washington, USC, and West Virginia as a defensive coordinator, that facet of the game improved tenfold for Cal in Year 1, with the Golden Bears going from more than 42 points per game allowed in 2016 to a shade more than 28 last season.
If the offense stays healthy and the defense does what it did last season, Cal will get back to a bowl in 2018.
Alex Kolodziej is theScore's betting writer. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 11 years. He can quote every line from Rounders and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AlexKoIodziej.
(Photos courtesy: Getty Images)