Lee Corso's headgear picks have been fade material for bettors
Lee Corso's job on College GameDay is to make his headgear picks straight up without factoring in the betting lines. And that's probably a good thing, because the long-tenured analyst wouldn't be very good at it, to say the least.
Corso came into the 2018 season having picked straight-up winners 57.1% of the time over the previous six years. That's not bad! His overall picks and headgear selections are both in the 65% range lifetime. But bettors know that when you're factoring in the spread, you need to stay above the magical 52.3% plateau. And if Corso was making his choices off the betting line, he'd be tapping into his retirement fund to compensate for the losses.
After entering last year on a 35-61-2 (36.5%) run against the spread since 2012, Corso came into 2018 on an absolute mission. Positive regression was looming. It was a bounce-back season for the television personality. And what do you know - Corso rebounded with an 8-9-1 record against the number on headgear selections, pushing his record up to ... 38.1% over the previous seven seasons.
Corso's 2018 picks
| Week | Pick | ML | ATS | Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Notre Dame | W | W | +1 |
| 2 | Clemson | W | L | -12.5 |
| 3 | Ohio State | W | L | -12.5 |
| 4 | Oregon | L | L | +3 |
| 5 | Penn State | L | W | +3 |
| 6 | Oklahoma | L | L | -7 |
| 7 | Wisconsin | L | L | +7 |
| 8 | Washington State | W | W | -3 |
| 9 | Florida | L | L | +7 |
| 10 | Alabama | W | W | -17.5 |
| 11 | Clemson | W | W | -17.5 |
| 12 | UCF | W | W | -6.5 |
| 13 | Michigan | L | L | +4.5 |
| 14 | Alabama | W | L | -14 |
| 15 | Navy | L | P | +7 |
| CFP | Alabama | W | L | -14 |
| Bowl | Ohio State | W | W | -4.5 |
| CFP | Clemson | W | W | +5 |
At least he finished out the season on a high note. Clemson outright over Alabama as a five-point underdog was the biggest coup of the year for Corso. His season was bookended with straight-up wins on underdogs, but he swung and missed elsewhere when taking the points: Wisconsin in Week 7 lost by 25 to Michigan; Florida in Week 9 lost by 19 to Georgia; Michigan in Week 13 lost by 23 to Ohio State.
The worst beat - one that could have resulted in a winning season against the spread - was undoubtedly in Week 4 when Corso took Oregon -3 at home over Stanford. Up 17 late in the third quarter and threatening in the red zone to put the nail in the coffin, the Ducks fumbled and Stanford took it back for a touchdown to cut the deficit to 10. The Cardinal wound up forcing overtime, scored a touchdown on the first possession, and completed one of the most bizarre comebacks of the season.
Corso and Co. will be in Dallas this Saturday for Oregon-Auburn. And if the famed analyst winds up taking a stance on the 3.5-point spread, perhaps you should rethink yours.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.