Every Thursday during the college football season, theScore's sports betting writers release their best bets for the week. Each member has been given a fictitious $1,000 bankroll to manage throughout the season. If you decide to follow any of the picks, please gamble responsibly.
All lines are courtesy of theScore Bet as of Thursday morning.
Alex Kolodziej ($1,092)
Season record: 7-4-1, +$92
Iowa State at Baylor
Total: 56.5
I really like using SP+ as a building block for projections, although I disagree with how it views Iowa State. SP+ bills the Cyclones as the No. 39 unit in the country. I have them more toward the middle of the pack.
Last week's 72-point, 700-plus-yard outburst will skew a lot of Iowa State's peripherals, including its 9.3 yards-per-play average, which ranks No. 2 in the country. The Cyclones are still an extremely risk-averse offense that wants to play at a slow pace. They rank No. 124 in the nation in plays per game. Iowa State has also had a tough time scoring on the road, tallying more than 27 points just once in their last eight away games, averaging 20 per contest over that span.
As for Baylor, the program's havoc rate up front, coupled with some studs in the secondary, should create real problems for the Cyclones' offense. It’s always tough to gauge where a team total might be, given they're typically released closer to game day, but I'd take the under on anything 28 or higher for Iowa State.
Pick: Iowa State team total under 28 ($40)
Coastal Carolina at Appalachian State
Total: 60
I've already played a couple of Appalachian State overs this season but I'm flipping the script here in Week 5. Though the Mountaineers aren't as defensive-minded this season, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt for the previous two weeks. They were clearly caught off guard by Charlotte's tempo in a Week 3 shootout win. Also, outside of some great field position and late scores against North Carolina, the Mountaineers held their own against the Tar Heels.
Coastal Carolina's offense is a severe step down in class. The Chanticleers are a run-first team that won't be able to beat App State through the air. I wouldn't be surprised to see the Mountaineers take a more conservative approach offensively with Louisiana-Lafayette on deck. I made this line a bit lower at 57.5 and recommend grabbing the under here with the move to 60.
Pick: Under 60 ($40)
Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Total: 61
I've had to downgrade Oklahoma State's offense from top 5 to just outside the top 10 after watching the game plan go stale against Tulsa and seeing the Cowboys falter at times against Texas. Still, this offense is fun to watch and is filled with dynamic game-changers.
Kansas State actually has a good offense, too. Skylar Thompson is taking more shots down the field and Oklahoma State's secondary is one that can be exposed. This might not look like a track meet on paper but this number's extremely low for two offenses that can rack up chunk plays.
Pick: Over 61 ($40)
Thomas Casale ($1,009)
Season record: 3-4-1, +$9
Hawaii at Nevada
Line: Nevada -2.5
After starting the year off slowly, I've hit three straight best bets in college football. This week, I'm looking at a Mountain West Conference matchup. Both Nevada and Hawaii come in at 3-1. Hawaii got drilled in its lone road game by Washington, while Nevada's loss was a 77-6 blowout at Oregon. Now the two teams get into conference play. There is value here with Nevada at home, as the Wolf Pack opened -2 before the line moved to 2.5. My numbers have Nevada as a four-point favorite.
It's no secret that the Rainbow Warriors are a different team away from the island and that they've struggled overall in this series. Nevada is 6-1 against the spread in its last seven meetings against Hawaii with an average cover of 10 points per game. The Wolf Pack have won five straight at home over Hawaii by 10 or more.
The temperature for Saturday night's game is expected to be in the 30s. Those aren't optimal conditions for the Rainbow Warriors' run-and-gun offense. Look for quarterback Cole McDonald to struggle against a Nevada defense allowing an average of just 90 passing yards over its last two games. The Wolf Pack have been money in this spot under head coach Jay Norvell, going 7-1 ATS in conference home games, while Hawaii is only 8-35 straight up (SU) in its last 43 road games. Give me the Nevada moneyline all day.
Pick: Nevada ML -130 ($100)
C Jackson Cowart ($902)
Season record: 2-6, -$98
Stanford at Oregon State
Line: Stanford -4
Stanford hasn't had an inspiring start to its season, losing three straight games for the first time in the David Shaw era. Before Saturday's loss to Oregon, the Cardinal coach was 10-0-1 ATS following consecutive ATS losses and 5-0 ATS after back-to-back SU losses.
However, Shaw's team is in a perfect get-right spot as short road chalk against Oregon State, which has lost seven straight ATS as a home 'dog and has dropped nine consecutive games to Stanford. Cardinal quarterback K.J. Costello struggled against Oregon after injuring his thumb on the first drive and will miss Saturday's game, but a healthy Davis Mills should find success against the Beavers' Swiss-cheese defense, which has allowed at least 31 points to 17 straight FBS opponents. Lay the points here and take a shot on the Cardinal team total, which should settle around 31.
Picks: Stanford -4 ($75), Stanford team total over 31 or lower ($35)
Clemson at North Carolina
Line: Clemson -27
Conventional wisdom says to avoid massive road favorites. However, road favorites of at least 21 points are on a 7-2 ATS run this year, including Clemson's 41-6 humiliation of Syracuse in the Carrier Dome.
Dabo Swinney hasn't fared well in his few chances as three-touchdown road chalk (1-4 ATS), though his Tigers are 5-0 ATS dating back to last season when giving at least 14 on the road. They've also covered nine straight against ACC foes, with three straight ATS wins over the Tar Heels.
UNC's snakebitten program could be without safety Myles Wolfolk in an already battered secondary, while Clemson is expecting superstar receiver Justyn Ross to suit up after missing Week 4. The Tigers' offense will simply be too much for North Carolina to keep this game close.
Pick: Clemson -27 ($20), over 60.5 ($20)
Alex Moretto ($831)
Season record: 2-5-1, -$169
UCLA at Arizona
Line: Arizona -6.5
How do you emotionally ground yourself after one of the greatest games in college football history? UCLA was staring at a 49-17 third-quarter deficit in Pullman before Washington State suffered one of the most improbable collapses ever - in any sport. The Bruins scored more points in the second half than they did in their first three games of the season combined.
Even with the win, UCLA's putrid defense is still giving up yards in bunches, ranking 90th in ESPN's efficiency ratings, while its offense is 89th. All everyone will think of when they look at the Bruins is that comeback. I see a bad team with a lame-duck head coach due for a massive letdown. The Arizona Wildcats are an underrated squad that can move the ball and will be fresh following their week off. Lay the points with the home team.
Pick: Arizona -6.5 ($40)
Penn State at Maryland
Line: Penn State -6
Ask around and you probably won't find too many people who think Penn State is deserving of its No. 13 ranking. The Nittany Lions needed a goal-line stand in the dying minutes to beat in-state rival Pittsburgh and were trailing at halftime to Buffalo. They've yet to play a road game this year and have been unimpressive against a trio of weaker opponents. So laying six points in Maryland is too much, right? I don't think so. Both teams are coming off a bye, but I have faith that Penn State coach James Franklin can work out the kinks.
Everyone is still infatuated by Maryland because of the show the Terrapins put on in the first two weeks, but they're a lot closer to the team we saw against Temple than the one that showed up against Syracuse. Look for the Nittany Lions to feed their stable of running backs, control possession, and once again keep Maryland tailback Anthony McFarland Jr. - who they held to 12 yards last season - on the sidelines. Penn State should also be able to replicate Temple's game plan and get enough pressure on quarterback Josh Jackson to force him into mistakes and make the Terrapins' offense one-dimensional. Take the Nittany Lions to cover on the road.
Pick: Penn State -6 ($40)
Delaware at Pittsburgh
Line: Pittsburgh -27
This is strictly a fade of Pitt coming off a pair of emotional games. The Panthers narrowly lost to rivals Penn State and then handed UCF its first loss in 27 regular-season games last weekend. That was as good as it's going to get at Heinz Field this season - the Pittsburgh Steelers included. I have a hard time seeing how Pat Narduzzi, whom I lost all faith in when he opted to attempt a field goal on fourth-and-goal while down a touchdown against Penn State, will get them up for a game against Delaware.
Expect a sluggish performance from the Panthers, while Delaware should have no issue getting up for its only game this season against an FBS school. Pitt is just 1-5-1 ATS under Narduzzi as a home favorite when laying double digits.
Pick: Delaware +27 ($20)
