College football Week 9 underdog plays: Badgers undervalued in Columbus
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Each week of the college football season, we'll highlight some of the best underdog bets, including ones that could net sizable moneyline profits.
Last week, we highlighted Baylor as a live 'dog traveling to Stillwater, and the Bears won big. Looking forward, here are our best bets for Week 9.
No. 13 Wisconsin (+14.5) at No. 3 Ohio State
Opening line: Ohio State -14
Betting against the Buckeyes has been a terrifying proposition this season, as Ohio State has gone 6-1 against the spread even with an average line of 21 points in the six covers. Meanwhile, Wisconsin just suffered one of the biggest upsets in Big Ten history. So, why back the Badgers here?
The answer: These teams aren't as far apart as the number suggests. Wisconsin had been Ohio State-lite ahead of last week, trouncing opponents en route to a 5-1 ATS record with wide-open margins. Just two weeks ago, the Badgers ripped off a 38-0 win over Michigan State - an opponent that had kept it closer at Ohio State (losing 34-10) just one week prior.
Additionally, Wisconsin coach Paul Chryst is 12-3 ATS coming off a loss, and Wisconsin's top-ranked scoring defense is likely too good to allow 35-plus points, which is roughly what oddsmakers are implying with the total and spread. Bet on the Badgers to limit possessions and keep it within two scores.
Duke (+3.5) at North Carolina
Opening line: North Carolina -3.5
This is a classic spot to fade the Tar Heels, who are coming of an exhausting six-overtime effort in Blacksburg that ultimately resulted in a loss to underdog Virginia Tech. This week, they'll face a hungry Duke team coming off its worst loss of the year and looking to get right in a key rivalry game.
Tar Heels quarterback Sam Howell has been potent, but he's also struggled to stay upright, with UNC allowing the eighth-most sacks in the nation. And despite the Blue Devils' struggles, their pass rush remains one of the best in the country. Duke could force Howell into some freshman mistakes with some early pressure.
While Mack Brown has righted the ship in Chapel Hill, he's just 1-2 ATS and straight up as a favorite this year, and he's also lost two heart-breakers in the last three weeks. His team may not have enough juice to avoid a letdown here.
Indiana (+1) at Nebraska
Opening line: Nebraska -1
Someday, somehow, bettors will quit these Cornhuskers, who are 1-6 ATS after being touted as dark-horse Big Ten contenders to open the year. Instead, it's been the Hoosiers (5-2 SU, 4-2-1 ATS) who have surprised, as they'll enter Saturday on a 3-0-1 ATS streak.
Simply put, Indiana is the better team. ESPN's SP+ rankings have the Hoosiers as a top-25 squad with Nebraska as a borderline top-50 group. In Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings, Indiana sits at No. 31 while Nebraska is at No. 57. Their records reflect it, too, even if Saturday's line doesn't.
Indiana should have a field day against a reeling Nebraska defense, while the special-teams battle heavily favors the Hoosiers. It would take an inspired effort from Adrian Martinez to guide the Huskers to a home win.
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.