CFB Week 10 buy or sell: Akron will cover its first game of the season
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Every week, we're diving into which teams are too low or high in the betting markets ahead of the weekend.
Here's what we're seeing leading up to Week 10.
Buy - Akron
Week 10: +6 at Bowling Green
It's officially a low point of the college football season: We're endorsing a low buy on a team that's 0-8 both straight up and against the spread. But this is the perfect case of an opponent - in this case, Bowling Green - that doesn't have the right to be laying six points to anyone. The Falcons are being outgained by more yards per game (2.1) than the Zips (1.6) this year. And don't be surprised if Akron pulls out all the stops in what's likely the Zips' last chance at a win this season.
Buy - Nevada
Week 10: -3.5 vs. New Mexico
Nevada beat Purdue in the opener and then decided to lie down. The Wolf Pack haven't covered a spread since Week 4 and all four of their losses this season have been by 26 or more points. But a New Mexico team that isn't equipped to exploit Nevada's defense seems like a good matchup. Though the Wolf Pack's secondary is one of the worst in the nation, the Lobos are one of the most run-oriented teams this season. Saturday also marks Nevada's first game back home in three weeks as the team fights for bowl eligibility. This one lines up perfectly to back at a short price.
Buy - Utah State
Week 10: -3.5 vs BYU
Last week looked like a good spot to buy Utah State as a 3.5-point underdog - before the Aggies were demolished by a red-hot Air Force team. I wouldn't dock Utah State too much considering the Falcons went up early, played ball control, and never let the Aggies back into it. BYU is on the upswing after handing Boise State its first loss of the season, though the Cougars were playing against a backup quarterback. Utah State's schedule gets tough down the stretch so every win counts for a bowl bid. BYU should get the Aggies' best effort late Saturday night.
Sell - UConn
Week 10: +28.5 vs. Navy
UConn gave Houston all it could handle two weeks ago and then boat raced UMass for its second win of the season. Now it's back to fading a Huskies defense that's allowing close to 200 yards per game on the ground against a triple-option team. Navy has arguably been the best service academy this season and should be able to do whatever it wants offensively.
Sell - Houston
Week 10: +21.5 at UCF
I should have known better than to sell Houston last week against SMU. The Cougars rebounded from a pitiful performance at UConn and covered - and nearly won - as 12.5-point underdogs to the undefeated Mustangs on Thursday night. Close losses can often benefit a program the following week, but I have a feeling that coming up short against a top mid-major and then traveling to take on another will negatively affect the Cougars. I'd sell again in this spot.
Sell - Middle Tennessee State
Week 10: -3 at Charlotte
Let's cap it off with our sixth and final mid-major program to either buy or sell. Middle Tennessee State is coming off a blowout win over Florida International in which the Blue Raiders rushed for - get this - 483 yards. Rain games tend to get weird, and Middle Tennessee State rushed for 8.8 yards per carry. Though the offense should have some success again this weekend, the 49ers continue to be one of the more undervalued teams in the country. This one's shaded toward the Blue Raiders, but I had it closer to a pick in this spot. Fade the road team, which has covered three of the last four.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.