Quick Lane Bowl betting preview: Pitt offense could go out with a bang

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The Pittsburgh Panthers and Eastern Michigan Eagles meet Dec. 26 in Detroit for the Quick Lane Bowl. Here's everything you need to know about the matchup from a betting perspective.

Line movement

Eastern Michigan has had its moments as a 'dog under head coach Chris Creighton, consistently getting up against Power 5 opponents. But the early money's been on Pitt, which opened at -9.5 and has since soared to -11. Barring a late flurry of Eastern Michigan money, the Panthers will close as double-digit favorites over an FBS team for the first time all season. The total has seen a slight line movement, dropping from the opening number of 50 to 49.

Betting breakdown

Pitt is a weird football team. The offense ranks 17th in the country in both pass play frequency and total plays per game, yet the Panthers have only had three totals close higher than 52 all season. Their struggles lie in consistently moving the ball - Pitt ranks 108th in yards per play (4.8) and 118th in yards per completion (10.4). The defense, however, has done more than enough to ease the pressure on the offense. Pitt is No. 11 in SP+ defense and allowed more than 28 points just twice in 2019.

Eastern Michigan, meanwhile, was able to run the ball late in the season against some of the lower-tier MAC competition, but its strength is through the air. The Eagles were a top-30 team in the country in passing yards per game - and No. 118 in rushing yards. Unlike Pittsburgh, though, Eastern Michigan's defense has been dreadful. The Eagles are 118th in SP+ defense and allowed at least 27 points to all but two opponents this season.

Pitt's been a great bet outside of ACC play under head coach Pat Narduzzi, covering five of its last six non-conference games and four of the last five against the MAC. The Panthers have also cashed eight of the last nine unders when favorites.

As mentioned earlier, the Eagles have been a solid bet as underdogs. They've covered 21 of the last 28 when getting points and are on a 17-8 run against the spread in their last 25 tilts versus teams with winning records.

X-factor

Pitt wide receiver Maurice Ffrench is must-watch TV. He recorded at least six catches in every game he played in this season and is also a dangerous punt returner. Though he missed some time with a broken jaw late in the campaign, Ffrench returned for the final game of the year against Boston College, hauling in a game-high nine receptions. There aren't many wide receivers in the country who impact a point spread or total, but Ffrench is the straw that stirs the Panthers' drink.

Pick

Over 49

I didn't have a strong lean one way or the other in the initial handicap of this game. I did mention, however, that if there's a bowl game that looks ugly on paper but could surprise us and get really, really weird, it's this one.

Pitt's offense has hardly set the world ablaze this season, hanging 17 on Delaware State, 20 on Georgia Tech, 19 on Boston College, and a goose egg against Virginia Tech. But if you can't succeed against an Eastern Michigan defense that graded out worse than Akron in SP+, you probably don't deserve to be in the postseason.

It doesn't figure to be the most aesthetically pleasing game of the bowl slate, but there could be more fireworks than anticipated with two offenses that should throw the ball plenty.

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKoIodziej.