ACC win totals: Go over on these 2 non-contenders
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Every team is on the table for win totals - and that's the best part.
In any normal ACC piece we'd be gauging which team had the best chance at unseating Clemson, or who could challenge the Tigers in a title game. But not today, folks.
You won't hear a peep about the national powerhouse, because there's simply no edge on the number. After combing through the entire ACC win totals board, there are actually two non-contenders that stick out like a sore thumb.
Here's our conference outlook for this upcoming fall.
2020 ACC win totals
| Team | Win Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clemson | 11.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Miami | 8.5 | -145 | +125 |
| North Carolina | 8.5 | -120 | +100 |
| Virginia Tech | 8.5 | +105 | -125 |
| Florida State | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Louisville | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Virginia | 6.5 | -125 | +105 |
| Wake Forest | 6.5 | -110 | -120 |
| Pittsburgh | 6.5 | +115 | -135 |
| Syracuse | 5.5 | -120 | -110 |
| Duke | 5.5 | -110 | -110 |
| North Carolina State | 4.5 | -180 | +150 |
| Boston College | 4.5 | -150 | +130 |
| Georgia Tech | 2.5 | -160 | +140 |
Strength of schedule
| Team | National SOS Rank |
|---|---|
| Georgia Tech | 5 |
| Florida State | 13 |
| Louisville | 25 |
| Boston College | 41 |
| North Carolina | 42 |
| Virginia | 43 |
| Wake Forest | 44 |
| Clemson | 57 |
| North Carolina State | 58 |
| Pittsburgh | 60 |
| Duke | 62 |
| Syracuse | 63 |
| Virginia Tech | 64 |
| Miami | 65 |
Using turnover margin plus actual wins versus expected wins from the 2019 season, here's which ACC teams were lucky, or unlucky:
Luckiest
Syracuse: plus-9 TO margin, 5 actual wins, 4.4 expected wins
Unluckiest
North Carolina State: minus-13 TO margin, 4 actual wins, 4.2 expected wins
Virginia Tech: minus-4 TO margin, 8 actual wins, 8.5 expected wins.
Best bets
Pittsburgh over 6.5 (+115)
ESPN's Bill Connelly found a distinct correlation between returning production on offense and improvement/regression for that season. The study prioritizes quarterback play and the skill corps. In this case, Pitt looks extremely solid heading into 2020.
The Panthers rank No. 24 in the nation in returning offensive production, headlined by quarterback Kenny Pickett. He's entering his third season as the full-time starter and second year under offensive coordinator Mark Whipple. Gone is wide receiver Maurice Ffrench, but Pickett has a pair of contributors returning with Taysir Mack (63 catches, 736 yards, three touchdowns in 2019) and Shocky Jacques-Louis (23-348-2).
The Panthers could very well start the season 4-0, with games against Miami (Ohio), Marshall, Richmond, and Duke. They do have road games at Florida State, Miami, and North Carolina, but also host Georgia Tech and Syracuse.
Give me the over.
Boston College over 4.5 (-150)
Head coach Steve Addazio really held Boston College back from a few victories in 2019. The Eagles were plus-5 in turnover margin and deserving of an extra win on top of their 6-6 record, but dropping consecutive games to Wake Forest and Louisville by a combined five points in the middle of the season stung.
Taking Addazio's place is former Ohio State co-defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley. Regarded as one of the top recruiters in the nation, Hafley also has some pieces to work with right away - Boston College ranks No. 16 in returning defensive production.
Really, this one comes down to the schedule. Boston College has a chance to go undefeated in the first month, as the Eagles open with Syracuse, Ohio, Kansas, and Purdue. Later down the road, they meet Wake Forest, Holy Cross, and North Carolina State.
This number is criminally low.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.