Pac-12 win totals: Colorado waves the white flag
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If you're a general fan with little to no rooting interest, how can you not irrationally love the Pac-12?
The conference has become the poster child for sheer mayhem in college football. While the Pac-12 hasn't had a representative in the playoff in the last three years, has any other conference earned an unofficial Twitter hashtag? No. Despite the lack of trophies in its hardware collection, the Pac-12 almost always demonstrates a flair for the dramatic.
And that makes the fourth installment of our win totals a fun handicap. Here's the 2020 outlook for the conference's win totals.
Pac-12 win totals
| Team | Win Total | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 9.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Utah | 8.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Washington | 8.5 | -110 | -110 |
| USC | 8.5 | +110 | -130 |
| Arizona State | 7.5 | -110 | -110 |
| California | 6.5 | -145 | +125 |
| Washington State | 6.5 | +160 | -180 |
| Stanford | 5.5 | -125 | +105 |
| UCLA | 5.5 | -110 | -110 |
| Oregon State | 5.5 | +140 | -170 |
| Arizona | 4.5 | -200 | +170 |
| Colorado | 3.5 | -175 | +150 |
Strength of schedule
| Team | National SOS Rank |
|---|---|
| USC | 2 |
| Stanford | 16 |
| Oregon | 19 |
| Colorado | 22 |
| Washington | 26 |
| Oregon State | 45 |
| Arizona | 47 |
| Arizona State | 50 |
| California | 52 |
| UCLA | 54 |
| Utah | 55 |
| Washington State | 56 |
Luck
Using turnover margin plus actual wins versus expected wins, here's which Pac-12 teams were lucky or unlucky in 2019.
Luckiest
Arizona State: +13 TO margin, 7 actual wins, 5.1 expected wins
Colorado: +3 TO margin, 5 actual wins, 4.7 expected wins
Unluckiest
Washington State: -6 TO margin, 6 actual wins, 7.9 expected wins
Returning production
A majority of the conference is in the bottom half of the nation in returning production, including Utah, which is last. Here's the full board:
| Team | National Rank in RP |
|---|---|
| USC | 5 |
| Stanford | 28 |
| Arizona | 30 |
| California | 33 |
| UCLA | 67 |
| Arizona State | 72 |
| Oregon State | 84 |
| Washington State | 85 |
| Oregon | 89 |
| Washington | 104 |
| Colorado | 115 |
| Utah | 130 |
Best bets
Colorado under 3.5 (+150)
Colorado was extremely lucky in 2019. Now the Buffaloes are one of the least experienced teams in the country with a schedule among the 25 most difficult in the nation. That's a recipe for disaster.
There are a couple of gimmes on the schedule. Colorado should pick up consecutive wins right out of the gate against Colorado State and Fresno State; from there, it looks bleak for the Buffs.
Pac-12 play features road games at Washington, USC, and both Arizona schools, all after a Week 3 trip to Texas A&M. Colorado will also host arguably the top two teams in the conference in Oregon and Utah.
I'm struggling to find four wins on the docket.
UCLA over 5.5 (-110)
Head coach Chip Kelly could really use a big year. He's a combined 7-17 in his first two seasons with UCLA, but he's got the pieces to work with for a surprising Year 3.
If returning production prioritizes quarterback play and the skill corps, UCLA is in good shape. Dual-threat quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson is back, as are a handful of speedy receivers on the outside.
The Bruins don't have too rough a path this fall. They face three mid-majors off the bat before hosting Stanford and Arizona, and they don't play Oregon or Washington.
UCLA should have reservations for bowling in 2020.
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.