Michigan win total preview: Expect chaos

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No other team in college football needs a statement year in 2020 more than Michigan.

Michigan has experienced a sharp decline as the Big Ten has evolved. Once a contender in the conference, the Wolverines are now entering a rebuilding year under head coach Jim Harbaugh.

Let's dive into Michigan's win total of nine for this upcoming season, courtesy of theScore Bet.

Michigan - Over/Under 9 wins

Over: -110
Under: -110

A look back

Michigan went 9-3 during the 2019 regular season, with losses to Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Penn State. Using second-order wins, which takes into account expected versus actual wins, the Wolverines were slightly unlucky with 9.2 projected victories.

The program has had some odd seasons under Harbaugh, and last year was no different. The Wolverines needed double overtime to beat Army at home but crushed Notre Dame by 31 in the same venue. They struggled early against Middle Tennessee State and beat four Big Ten opponents by at least 30 points.

Returning production

Michigan has had a good mix of upper and underclassmen during the last half-decade. If one side of the ball was young, the other's typically experienced. Entering 2020, the Wolverines need a group effort.

Michigan is last in the Big Ten in returning production and No. 127 nationally, bringing back just 36% of the offense (119th) and 49% of the defense (110th).

Gone from last year's No. 35 scoring offense is quarterback Shea Patterson, as well as five others who were drafted in April. Joe Milton and Dylan McCaffrey will compete for the job under center, while Nico Collins and Ronnie Bell spearhead the receiving corps.

Defensive coordinator Don Brown could use a big year after the Wolverines finished No. 19 in the country in points allowed. That won't be easy, as six players from last year's unit were drafted.

Schedule

The good news for Michigan is it won't need to do too much traveling.

It'll head to Washington for the opener, but that's followed by four straight home games. Overall, four road contests over the final 13 weeks is a pretty solid draw.

The bad news is the general strength of the schedule.

Michigan owns the fourth-toughest path in the conference and 11th-toughest nationally. Not only are Washington, Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State tough matchups for the Wolverines, but Minnesota and Indiana are also rapidly improving.

Pick

Under normal circumstances, Michigan is all over the place. Now, imagine what will happen with so many unknowns surrounding the roster.

Bettors will understandably have a difficult time investing in the Wolverines. They usually underachieve at random points throughout the year and haven't beaten Ohio State since 2011.

Basically, you should expect chaos.

Michigan's going to be young in 2020, and there's a sense of urgency for a program that has yet to break through to the playoff. Milton and McCaffrey have plenty of upside, and both have had time to learn offensive coordinator Josh Gattis' system, which could be deadly if all the pieces fall into place.

Overall, inexperience and the schedule will likely be too much for Michigan to overcome. The number is perfect - I project 8.8 wins for Harbaugh and Co. - so I'm going under, but not by much.

Pick: Under

Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.