Florida win total preview: Gators are a public darling
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Every year in college football, one team draws more interest than usual. In 2020, say hello to Florida.
Fresh off an 11-2 record, the Gators have been given the sixth-best title odds in the country. But to reach the playoff, they'll need to surpass their win total of 10.
Let's look closer at Florida, including which way we'd bet the Gators in 2020.
Florida - Over/Under 10 wins
Over: +105
Under: -125
A look back
Florida's offense had to take a slight detour in Week 3 last season after starting quarterback Feleipe Franks suffered a broken ankle against Kentucky, forcing junior Kyle Trask to step in and lead the unit.
The group didn't skip a beat.
Trask went 8-2 as a starter, with both losses coming against top-10 teams (No. 5 LSU and No. 8 Georgia). He registered 2,941 passing yards and 25 touchdowns against seven interceptions despite not playing in front of a single returning offensive-line starter.
Kyle Trask — One of the best quarterbacks in the 2021 NFL Draft Class
— Brad Kelly (@BradKelly17) May 14, 2020
▪️Timing ▪️Accuracy▪️Touch pic.twitter.com/92i8iFv1dd
The Gators finished the year ranked No. 11 in the country in SP+ offense, while their defense - which tied for fifth in the nation with 16 interceptions - was even better at No. 7.
Returning production
The Gators are pretty average across the board in returning production.
Trask, tight end Kyle Pitts, and do-it-all Kadarius Toney spearhead an offense that brings back 63% of last year's unit.
Defensively, Florida gets 67% of the group back, though it lost three key back-seven pieces during the draft.
Schedule
| Week | Opponent |
|---|---|
| 1 | vs. Eastern Washington |
| 2 | vs. Kentucky |
| 3 | vs. South Alabama |
| 4 | @ Tennessee |
| 5 | vs. South Carolina |
| 6 | vs. LSU |
| 7 | @ Ole Miss |
| 8 | Bye |
| 9 | vs. Georgia |
| 10 | @ Vanderbilt |
| 11 | vs. Missouri |
| 12 | vs. New Mexico State |
| 13 | @ Florida State |
This is the best draw a team could ask for heading into the 2020 campaign.
The Gators are slated for only four true road games this season, with one in nearby Tallahassee. They also play Georgia at a "neutral" site in Florida.
The Gators' strength of schedule is the weakest in the conference, and they rank No. 61 nationally. Only five teams on their docket this year clinched a bowl game in 2019.
Best bet
We know the Gators are going to be solid in 2020. They're coming off 11 wins behind a backup quarterback, and Florida owns the conference's easiest slate.
It's fair, however, to wonder if this team is actually legit.
If we were talking national title contenders, I'd recommend pumping the brakes. Taking 12-1 odds on perhaps the fourth-best team in the top conference isn't ideal.
But the schedule sets up so well for Florida, the squad could be far from perfect during the regular season and still record 10-plus wins for the third straight year under Dan Mullen.
I have serious concerns about the Gators contending in a four-team playoff. But shattering their win total is certainly in play, especially at the current price.
Pick: Over
(Odds source: theScore Bet).
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.