Saturday's top college football bets: No respect for SMU
Find line reports, best bets, and subscribe to push notifications in the Betting News section.
Week 0 is always a nice little tune-up for the start of the season.
The NCAA has had to trim some fat off the schedule with multiple conferences electing not to play, but there'll still be steady volume all year.
To get you prepared, here are the best bets you can make this weekend.
SMU at Texas State
Spread: SMU -21.5
Total: 70
The sharp bettor would note that SMU was one of the luckiest teams in the country in 2019. The Mustangs won 10 games despite performing like a 7.9-win team. However, that doesn't mean you should automatically sell.
Despite some money already pushing the Mustangs up from -21 to -21.5, this number is still quite soft.
SMU had one of the most explosive offenses in the country in 2019 when it finished fifth in points per game. There should be some regression for a unit that was outside the top 25 in yards per play (No. 31), but the Mustangs aren't getting enough credit in this spot.
Quarterback Shane Buechele and Co. torched the Texas State defense for 639 yards just last season. Buechele - who ranked sixth in the country in passing yards in 2019 - is back to spearhead a unit that returns 75% of last year's production.
The increase in intensity from practice to the first game of the season can often shock a team, and Texas State - which has one of the least-experienced defenses in the country - is going to get hit with a reality check.
Pick: SMU -21.5
Middle Tennessee State at Army
Spread: Army -3.5
Total: 55
One of the narratives surrounding this game is how much time Middle Tennessee State has had to prepare for the triple option. Well, preparation is irrelevant if you don't have the personnel.
A Blue Raiders defense that recorded a measly 11 sacks last season had to replace five players in the front seven. Middle Tennessee State will struggle to create havoc up front against an Army offense that's tough to plan for.
On the flip side, the Blue Raiders have one of the most underrated Group of 5 quarterbacks in Asher O'Hara, who leads an offense that brought back 82% of last year's output. They played Michigan, Iowa, and Duke in 2019, so they'll be up for this challenge against the service academy.
This should be a fun tilt full of splash plays.
Pick: Over 55
(Odds source: theScore Bet).
Alex Kolodziej is a betting writer for theScore. He's a graduate of Eastern Illinois who has been involved in the sports betting industry for 12 years. He can quote every line from "Rounders" and appreciates franchises that regularly wear alternate jerseys. Find him on Twitter @AJKolodziej.