CFB Week 3 Pros vs. Joes: Sharps buying Wake Forest as road 'dog
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Before you make your college football bets this weekend, it's worth knowing which side other bettors are backing - especially on games drawing sharp action.
We talked to Jay Rood, Bet.Works' chief risk officer and theScore Bet's head trader, to see how sharps and public bettors are playing the Week 3 slate.
No. 17 Miami at No. 18 Louisville (-2.5, 64.5)
The only top-25 matchup of the weekend is predictably split in the betting community, though the home favorite has seen the line move in its favor ahead of Saturday night.
The Cardinals opened as 1.5-point chalk and jumped straight to -2.5 before some Miami money pushed the line back to 2. That's climbed once again, but this game could go in either direction over the next 24 hours with the ticket count nearly dead even as of Friday afternoon.
"Really good two-way, but we're just seeing public play right now," Rood said. "There hasn't been any sharp play on this one."
Tulsa at No. 11 Oklahoma State (-23.5, 66)
Only one Big 12 team is in action this week after Baylor's game with Houston was postponed. Bettors don't seem to mind, as they're hammering Oklahoma State as a massive favorite against Tulsa.
The Cowboys have seen roughly 10 times as many tickets with a whopping 40-to-1 advantage in money, with all of it coming from public bettors. Like most games this week, there hasn't been any sharp activity, but squares have bet enough to move this line from 22 to 23.5, with most play coming at Oklahoma State -23.
"They’re laying the big wood," Rood said. "We threw the hook on there to slow it down a little bit."
Navy at Tulane (-7, 48.5)
Navy was embarrassed in its season-opening 55-3 loss to BYU on Sept. 7, though bettors are buying its chances Saturday as a touchdown underdog at Tulane.
The Midshipmen opened as 8-point 'dogs, but a run of public money nudged the line to 7.5 and eventually 7, where it sits as of Friday afternoon. That could still be on the move - Navy has drawn twice as many tickets as Tulane with more than 90% of the money.
If the Midshipmen can pull off the upset, it'd be a rare feat. Road underdogs of at least seven points coming off a loss as bad as Navy's are 9-18-2 ATS in their last 29 tries with just two outright wins.
Wake Forest at NC State (-1.5, 52.5)
While sharps have mostly left this week's slate alone, they are zeroing in on the Demon Deacons, who opened as 2.5-point underdogs but have tightened the gap on in-state rival NC State ahead of their prime-time matchup.
“We’re seeing some 'dog money come in on Wake Forest, mostly sharp money," Rood said. "This is kind of a 'Pros vs Joes' in this weird environment."
Wake Forest is drawing 10 times as much money as the Wolfpack, which is still the public favorite with 60% of tickets and a small edge in parlay activity. Sharps may be onto something - road 'dogs of 1.5 points or fewer are 18-6-1 against the spread in ACC matchups over the last 30 years.
(Odds source: theScore Bet)
C Jackson Cowart is a betting writer for theScore. He's an award-winning journalist with stops at The Charlotte Observer, The San Diego Union-Tribune, The Times Herald-Record, and BetChicago. He's also a proud graduate of UNC-Chapel Hill, and his love of sweet tea is rivaled only by that of a juicy prop bet. Find him on Twitter @CJacksonCowart.