5 long shots worth betting to win the College Football Playoff
College football has a reputation for being dominated by a handful of juggernaut programs, but that isn't always the case. Since 2003, three teams have won the national championship after entering the season with 40-1 odds or longer, which doesn't include 2019 champion LSU winning it as a 25-1 preseason long shot and a few runner-up finishes by surprise contenders.
So we know it can happen. Will we see it this year? Here are five teams who could legitimately win it all at 50-1 odds or better:
LSU (+5000)
The Tigers won as 40-1 long shots in 2003, cashed at 8-1 in 2007, and surprised as 25-1 preseason dark horses in 2019. Why couldn't they do the same in 2021? LSU lost nearly its entire starting group from that 2019 title team and went 5-5 last season as a result, but Ed Orgeron's squad returns 16 starters for a roster built on three consecutive top-five recruiting classes in the nation.
To nobody's surprise, there's talent littering this roster. Quarterbacks Myles Brennan and Max Johnson have shown flashes and could flourish behind an offensive line returning all five starters. On defense, the Tigers are led by All-American cornerbacks Derek Stingley and Eli Ricks, while the entire defensive front returns for their senior seasons. It's hard to fade a program this storied with a roster this loaded and experienced - especially at a long-shot price.
North Carolina (+5500)
The Tar Heels are one of two teams in the AP top 10 priced longer than 50-1, and it's not hard to see their path to title contention. Sam Howell - among the betting favorites to win the 2021 Heisman Trophy and get picked No. 1 overall in the 2022 NFL Draft - led UNC's offense to a school-record 41.7 points per game as a sophomore, helping the team peak at No. 5 overall before late-season losses.
Howell is one of 21 returning starters from last year's bowl game, and they'll be joined by a top-15 recruiting class and star transfer Ty Chandler, who rushed for 2,046 yards across four seasons at Tennessee. The Tar Heels' defense wasn't a strong suit in 2020, but their secondary is legit. North Carolina could finally break into college football's elite if this group can see some instant impact from its young, athletic linemen.
Cincinnati (+7500)
This isn't the best price that Cincinnati has traded at this offseason, but this list would be incomplete without including the best Group of 5 team in the field and the one with the most obvious path to winning it all. The Bearcats nearly crashed the party a year ago with a 9-0 start to the season and looked like an elite squad before blowing a late lead to Georgia in the Peach Bowl.
Cincinnati returns the bulk of its elite defense from a year ago and welcomes back star quarterback Desmond Ridder, who is a legitimate Heisman contender and flanked by explosive weapons offensively. The Bearcats will have a chance to earn a playoff trip with non-conference games against Notre Dame and Indiana - if they pass both tests en route to an undefeated season, it'll be hard to shut out Luke Fickell's group for a second straight year.
Arizona State (+15000)
The 2020 season was supposed to be the Sun Devils' year: star talent Jayden Daniels was coming off a breakout freshman campaign at QB and was surrounded by one of Arizona State's most talented rosters in recent memory. The team led the Pac-12 in scoring offense and defense but had little to show for it through four games of a pandemic-shortened season.
Herm Edwards' squad brings back 15 starters from that group, including Daniels, and has the talent and continuity to win the Pac-12 outright. That would almost certainly secure a trip to the playoff, where Daniels' explosiveness would pose a threat to any defense in the field.
Louisiana (+100000)
When a team finishes with 10-plus wins in consecutive seasons, returns 95% of its production, and enters the year ranked in the top 25, you take notice. When that same team is priced as a 1,000-1 long shot - yes, you read that right - you take action.
The Ragin' Cajuns return 20 starters from a 2020 group that won 10 games and finished the year ranked 15th in the nation, and they get an immediate test at No. 21 Texas and could face No. 22 Coastal Carolina in the Sun Belt title game. Remember the name Levi Lewis. If Louisiana runs the table and shocks the world in the playoffs, the fifth-year QB will be the reason why.
C Jackson Cowart is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter (@CJacksonCowart) or email him at cjackson.cowart@thescore.com.