CFB bowl betting: Confidence pool rankings

You don't have to bet every bowl game. In fact, you probably shouldn't. That's why bowl pools are so popular - they'll keep you invested on a Tuesday afternoon or late on a Wednesday night during the holidays if you don't have an edge on a game due to lineup, coaching, or health uncertainty.

So, here's a list of every bowl game and how I'm using each one in ATS confidence pools, where you have to submit picks for games two weeks in advance. In this day and age. Fun!

1. LSU vs. Kansas State (-1.5)

With 42 games, five to seven of them could be in the top spot, but this is a strategy play. As the No. 1 pick, this matchup gets assigned 42 confidence points - got it? And it's the last bowl game of the season (Jan. 4), so you can put that in your back pocket. LSU has figuratively played the world's longest season, so it shouldn't have much interest in dragging out this one. Meanwhile, Kansas State will be up for dragging the Tigers into a trench fight.

Pick: Kansas State -1.5

2. Arkansas vs. Penn State (-2.5)

I was surprised Arkansas was favored on the open, so the move from +4 to +2.5 isn't shocking. Treylon Burks' opt out might have stopped this from flipping favorites, but with Penn State yet to announce who won't be available, I don't think we've heard the last from this line.

Pick: Arkansas +2.5

3. Michigan vs Georgia (-8)

It's nice to have a little extra juice in the College Football Playoff semifinals. I think most pool participants will like Michigan here, so Georgia makes for a pretty good difference-maker on New Year's Eve. The Bulldogs do what the Wolverines do well, only better.

Pick: Georgia -8

4. Washington State vs. Miami (-2.5)

Shocker, we're going with Washington State, which has bonded over its coach's midseason departure. Meanwhile, Miami bonded over its coach's midseason non-departure only to see him unceremoniously fired at season's end. The wrong team is favored here.

Pick: Washington State +2.5

5. East Carolina vs. Boston College (-3)

Phil Jurkovec is coming back, so Boston College will get a second chance next year after a lost season. With the extra practice, Jeff Hafley will have the Eagles' defense prepared for Holton Ahlers.

Pick: BC -3

6. Ball State vs. Georgia State (-4.5)

Is this spot too high for an almost-straight fade of the worst bowl team? Ball State is 102nd in SP+ ratings, while Georgia State showed this season it's on the upswing.

Pick: Georgia State -4.5

7. UCLA vs North Carolina State (-1)

UCLA's run game won't be able to push around NC State's defense, which is how the Bruins accumulated eight wins. UCLA's losses (Fresno State, ASU, Oregon, and Utah) all came against comparable talent to the Wolfpack.

Pick: NC State -1

8. Air Force vs. Louisville (-2)

I'm fading the narrative that you never fade a military academy in a bowl game. Players like Malik Cunningham don't grow on Mountain West trees.

Pick: Louisville -2

9. Texas Tech vs. Mississippi State (-9)

As we pointed out here, Mike Leach's teams struggle in bowl games. His Air Raid offense thrives on rhythm and repetition, so a month off before the Egg Bowl doesn't help.

Pick: Texas Tech +9

10. SMU vs. Virginia (-2)

A game that sees a high-octane offense versus a high-octane offense has SMU coming in without two of its top wide receivers. Meanwhile, Brennan Armstrong should be healed from a late-season injury that slowed Virginia's ACC chances in November.

Pick: Virginia -2

11. Clemson vs. Iowa State (-1.5)

Who's into this game more: the team used to the CFP semifinals and with both its coordinators out the door? Or the team that regularly plays up to its competition?

Pick: Iowa State -1.5

12. Central Florida vs. Florida (-6.5)

Central Florida finally gets its chance against Florida, and I'm not sure the Gators care. First-year head coach Gus Malzahn is very familiar with SEC competition, and he'll instill in UCF an urgency that Florida won't have after barely qualifying for a bowl game in a disaster season.

Pick: UCF +6.5

13. North Texas vs. Miami (OH) (-3)

The junior version of the Arkansas game. North Texas opened as 4-point 'dogs and may be favored by kickoff as it brings a five-game ATS streak into this matchup, which will be played in its home state.

Pick: North Texas +3

14. Iowa vs. Kentucky (-2.5)

The only thing keeping this from being higher on my list is Iowa's magical power of staying in games despite having the country's 100th-best offense. Mark Stoops and Kentucky should score enough to validate the line move from underdog to favorite.

Pick: Kentucky -2.5

15. Oklahoma State vs. Notre Dame (-2.5)

Notre Dame will get the attention with new head coach Marcus Freeman, but Oklahoma State will get the money.

Pick: Oklahoma State +2.5

16. Arizona State vs. Wisconsin (-7)

This feels like a game where Arizona State should cover as an underdog ... only it won't. Wisconsin's defense will suffocate the Sun Devils while the Badgers break off run after run.

Pick: Wisconsin -7

17. Missouri vs. Army (-3.5)

Army will bludgeon Missouri's horrendous run defense.

Pick: Army -3.5

18. Marshall vs. Louisiana (-5)

Former Marshall head coach Doc Holliday was the bowl cover king. Let's see if Charles Huff can keep that rolling against Louisiana, which will see its head coach head to Gator Country.

Pick: Marshall +5

19. Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian State (-2.5)

I've been off Appalachian State since Chase Brice took the helm at quarterback. That's worked out after I faded this team in losses to Marshall and Louisiana (twice). Bailey Zappe will throw for his usual million yards to outscore the Mountaineers.

Pick: Western Kentucky +2.5

20. UAB vs. BYU (-7)

UAB is better than you think. The team sits at 45th in the SP+ ratings with the 27th-best defense. Bill Clark's group can hang with BYU, though I liked this better at the +8 open.

Pick: UAB +7

21. Utah State vs. Oregon State (-7)

Oregon State is a goal-oriented group that's on the rise, so the Beavers will be up for this game. Meanwhile, Utah State shocked the Mountain West with its championship run. Hopefully the program won't run into a team ravaged by illness this time around.

Pick: Oregon State -7

22. Cincinnati vs. Alabama (-13.5)

Cincinnati can hang in this game, as evidenced by the line moving below 14 points. The Bearcats' NFL-quality corners can match up on the outside, while the Desmond Ridder-led offense can score enough to cover the number.

Pick: Cincinnati +13.5

23. UTEP vs. Fresno State (-11.5)

Look for UTEP to be live to win this game in the fourth quarter in uncharted territory for the team, while Fresno's head coach is on his way to Washington. It'd be a bonus if Jake Haener opted out, sending the line below double digits.

Pick: UTEP +11.5

24. Hawaii vs. Memphis (-6.5)

Best of luck backing Todd Graham in a meaningless game with a team that's seen quarterback Chevan Cordeiro hop in the transfer portal to get out of Hawaii. Not a move you hear every day.

Pick: Memphis -6.5

25. Wake Forest vs. Texas A&M (-5)

I don't care who plays quarterback for Texas A&M. The team's defense will be enough to stop Sam Hartman, while the Aggies' run game wil score on the porous Wake Forest defense to get A&M the cover.

Pick: Texas A&M -5

26. Utah vs. Ohio State (-6.5)

This is the contrarian section of the selections. It won't be comfortable, but Utah's first Rose Bowl should have Kyle Whittingham's troops with all hands on deck. I trust him to have a plan for C.J. Stroud and the vaunted Ohio State offense. More importantly for the pool, your competitors will be lining up to back the Buckeyes.

Pick: Utah +6.5

27. South Carolina vs. North Carolina (-9)

This line has shot up from UNC -5 with the indication that Sam Howell will play. We'll play against that and back South Carolina, thinking the Gamecocks can move the ball against the Tar Heels' defense.

Pick: South Carolina +9

28. San Diego State vs. UTSA (-2.5)

The opposite of contrarian, we'll take the popular UTSA just to stay with the competition. As long as it's under a field goal, the Roadrunners are worth a bet, as the offense should be too much for San Diego State.

Pick: UTSA -2.5

29. Houston vs. Auburn (-2.5)

If you have Dana Holgorsen's bowl ATS record (1-7), I'm not going to back you at this short of a price.

Pick: Auburn -2.5

30. Kent State vs. Wyoming (-3)

We've reached the shoulder-shrugging portion of the selections. While the expectation for our carefully curated top picks is closer to 60%, we're happy with a split for the rest of the list. That starts with Wyoming taking advantage of Kent State's 117th-rated defense (SP+).

Pick: Wyoming -3

31. Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty (-8.5)

If we're fading Kent State, we should fade EMU, which has the worst defense of all bowl participants.

Pick: Liberty -8.5

32. Purdue vs. Tennessee (-4.5)

This would be way higher if the line hadn't shot from Purdue -3 to Tennessee -4.5. I'm not getting burned by that move with a big confidence point total.

Pick: Tennessee -4.5

33. Oregon vs. Oklahoma (-4.5)

Two teams ravaged by coaching changes, transfers, and opt outs? I'll just take the points.

Pick: Oregon +4.5

34. Old Dominion vs. Tulsa (-9.5)

I'm sure Old Dominion will score. I'm just not sure how, with the 106th-rated offense going up against a decent Tulsa group.

Pick: Tulsa -9.5

35. Ole Miss vs. Baylor (-1)

Matt Corral better play, or we're in big trouble. If he does, we'll have a good price on the favorite.

Pick: Ole Miss +1

36. Virginia Tech vs. Maryland (-1)

You're getting more certainty with Maryland than with Virginia Tech. That isn't something you would've ever said during the regular season, which says more about the current state of the Hokies.

Pick: Maryland -1

37. Pittsburgh vs. Michigan State (-1.5)

Call it blind faith, but I'm hoping one of my favorite players will decide to cap his Pitt career with a monumental bowl-game performance. If Kenny Pickett plays, we're getting a ton of value with a low-risk point total. Want more risk/reward? Move this up your list.

Pick: Pitt +1.5

38. Middle Tennessee vs. Toledo (-10)

No reason to go wild for bowl season's opening game ...

Pick: Toledo (-10)

39. Northern Illinois vs. Coastal Carolina (-10.5)

... or for bowl season's second game. Save it for Saturday.

Pick: Northern Illinois +10.5

40. Nevada vs. Western Michigan (-3.5)

All the value has been bled out of Western Michigan with Nevada's coach and star quarterback not making the trip to Detroit. But that's still not going to put me on Nevada when I liked the Broncos even before that news.

Pick: WMU -3.5

41. West Virginia vs. Minnesota (-3.5)

Truthfully, as much as I liked West Virginia at +7 on open and +200 on the moneyline, we're a half-point drop away from buying back on Minnesota. That's the kind of indecisiveness saved for a 2-point confidence assignment.

Pick: WVU +3.5

42. Central Michigan vs. Boise State (-7.5)

And the winner of the "One-Point Confidence Game" is ... the Arizona Bowl! I just hope everyone has a good time. As they say: "When in (peak levels of) doubt, take the points."

Pick: Central Michigan +7.5

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.