CFB Saturday best bets: Bowl season gets real
Unlike Friday's toe-dip into bowl season, things get ramped up Saturday. There are six FBS games on the docket, with a handful of interesting teams to watch.
Boca Raton Bowl: Western Kentucky vs. Appalachian St. (-3, 66.5)
Line History
Even though the games aren't played until mid-to-late December or early January, it can be crucial to bet bowl game openers on the Sunday the contests are announced. It also informs us about what sharp bettors think of the matchups.
I'll admit I'm surprised that App State has gotten attention here, as this line has moved up to a full field goal in its favor after opening at -2.5. The total has ticked up a half-point.
On the field
The Hilltoppers offensive coordinator has moved on, but Bailey Zappe hasn't. He gets a chance to showcase his ability for pro scouts, with the presumption that he throws the ball 50-plus times. The closest thing App State's defense has seen to WKU's No. 7-ranked offense (according to ESPN's SP+) is Coastal Carolina, and they got an outlier performance from quarterback Chase Brice in that contest. I don't trust him to keep up.
We've come this far backing the Hilltoppers and fading Brice and the Mountaineers this season, so why would we stop now? I'll happily take the field goal and wouldn't be shy of the moneyline either.
Pick: Western Kentucky +3
New Mexico Bowl: UTEP vs. Fresno State (-11.5, 51.5)
Line History
Fresno opened as 14.5-point favorites, but the number dropped toward -10 in the first two days following the news that Kalen DeBoer accepted Washington's head coaching job. The line eventually settled at -11.5. The total has held steady at 51.5.
On the field
The on-field matchup appears lopsided if you look at the metrics that we trust to confirm what we see on the field as teams play different levels of competition, but that's what the point spread is for.
Fresno's star quarterback Jake Haener entered and already exited the transfer portal, but his status for this game remains uncertain. The Bulldogs have also brought back former coach Jeff Tedford, who will be on the sidelines Saturday in place of DeBoer. While it's great that Fresno has some stability for one more season with Haener, this is a bit too much chaos for me since the betting requirement is a comfortable win to cover this spread.
UTEP has no wins of any repute this season, so while the Miners may not be live for the upset, they'll be focused on competing in New Mexico.
Pick: UTEP +11.5
Independence Bowl: UAB vs. BYU (-7, 54.5)
Line History
BYU opened -9, and early bets on UAB took the line below -7 before seeing buyback on the Cougars at -6.5. The total dropped a point from 55.5.
On the field
I love UAB here. The Blazers rank No. 45 in SP+ ratings compared to the Cougars' 42nd. UAB's two non-conference losses were against Georgia and Liberty. Its conference defeats consist of a three-point loss to Conference USA champions UTSA and a bizarre loss to Rice in which the Blazers were the better team from yards-per-play and overall yardage standpoints.
BYU isn't as good as its record indicates. The Cougars took advantage of home victories against a pair of Pac-12 teams that struggled early in the season. Look for UAB to have a chance to win late at a nice +220 moneyline payout.
Pick: UAB +7
LendingTree Bowl: Eastern Michigan vs. Liberty (-9.5, 58)
Line History
This line has lingered in no man's land between 7.5 and 9.5, sitting on the latter a day before kickoff. The total has held firm at 58.
On the field
The on-field handicap won't like Eastern Michigan in this matchup as it owns the worst defense of any bowl team this year (120th in SP+). However, we're predicting the actions of college-aged players. Liberty is a team that racks up penalty yardage and is prone to turnovers, whereas the Eagles are the least penalized team of the postseason. With such a conflict of talent versus discipline, I have no conviction in this game.
Pick: Pass, unless EMU +10 becomes available
L.A. Bowl: Utah State vs. Oregon St. (-7, 67.5)
Line History
This game has toggled between Oregon State -7 and -7.5. The total has moved up from 64.5 on the open.
On the field
The Beavers are a program on the rise with a top-15 offensive efficiency. This group might not be as talented as their in-state rivals, but you can rely on them for effort. Oregon State boasts a veteran offensive line, and they can push around the surprise Mountain West champions.
Utah State used a beneficial conference schedule to get itself into the title game and then beat up on a San Diego State team ravaged by illness. That's a successful first season for coach Blake Anderson and quarterback Logan Bonner, so the trip to Jimmy Kimmel's bowl game feels like a reward.
The Beavers are a goal-oriented group. They wanted to go undefeated at home, and they did. They wanted to make a bowl game, and they did. I assume they'll be focused on their accomplishment here.
Pick: Oregon State -7
New Orleans Bowl: Marshall vs. Louisiana (-5.5, 54.5)
Line History
Louisiana opened as a 6.5-point favorite, but bettors weren't given a chance to get the full +7 with Marshall before it fell to +5.5. The total has made a big move from 49 up to its current standing.
On the field
The Ragin' Cajuns worked over App State at home in the Sun Belt championship, vanquishing their biggest conference rival in head coach Billy Napier's final game before heading to Florida. Louisiana ranks No. 52 in SP+ ratings and has accomplished all its goals, especially considering it was a three-point home dog to App State.
Marshall's one foray into the Sun Belt Conference was a road game at App State in which they led 30-21 in the fourth quarter. The Thundering Herd lost by one point, but Grant Wells and the Marshall offense can win this game as +200 underdogs.
If you wanted to finish Saturday with the start of a round-robin moneyline parlay for bowl season, here you go: Marshall/North Texas/UCF/Texas Tech/Arkansas.
Pick: Marshall +5.5
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.