CFB Wednesday bowl best bets: Clemson undervalued vs. Iowa State?
"Toward the Green Monster ... way back and gone!"
Unfortunately, we're not talking about a soaring J.D. Martinez drive, but rather the Fenway Bowl between SMU and Virginia. Its cancellation Wednesday morning leaves us with just three bowl games.
Pinstripe Bowl: Virginia Tech vs. Maryland (-3.5, 55)
Line history
Virginia Tech opened as a 2.5-point favorite before the line jumped the fence to Maryland as a short favorite. The total opened at 52.5 but made a quick move up before settling around 55.
On the field
The Yankees get another win over the Red Sox - at least in terms of venues, as Yankee Stadium is still hosting its Wednesday game. Virginia Tech is a mess right now thanks to the absences of head coach Justin Fuente (fired) and quarterback Braxton Burmeister (transfer portal). With a handful of other starters bailing, it's no surprise the line swung this wildly.
I would've made the midseason version of the Hokies a 6-point favorite, but the Terrapins are expected to be more able and willing to compete after Taulia Tagovailoa and Co. beat Rutgers to earn one of the better postseason bowl trips.
Virginia Tech quarterback Connor Blumrick is a bigger threat as a runner than a passer, which may cause problems for the Terps, who gave up the 76th-most rush yards per game in the country this season. Running back Raheem Blackshear may also cause issues for Maryland.
If you took Maryland before the big line move, you're sitting pretty. Now that the Hokies are favorites by more than a field goal, I'd back them to work the ground game and keep this close.
Pick: Virginia Tech +3.5
Cheez-It Bowl: Iowa State vs. Clemson (-1.5, 44)
Line history
Clemson opened at -1.5, but once its offensive and defensive coordinators left, and Iowa State's head coach Matt Campbell didn't, the Cyclones flipped to the favorites. Although Clemson was deemed less interested in the bowl, head coach Dabo Swinney has been saying all the right things, and the Tigers' talent advantage has forced bettors to acknowledge that they should still be favored. The total went as high as 46 before coming back down.
On the field
While Clemson isn't missing any significant players, Iowa State star running back Breece Hall is out as he prepares for the NFL draft. If all things were equal, I would make the game Clemson by close to a touchdown, and its defense should still be stout, which could make things tough for Cyclones quarterback Brock Purdy.
We know that Campbell will have his guys ready to go, but the motivational angle is built into the line. Even if Clemson's 9-3 record this season doesn't feel successful relative to usual expectations in Death Valley, the Tigers are a discount pick.
Pick: Clemson -1.5
Alamo Bowl: Oregon vs. Oklahoma (-7, 60)
Line history
This line went on a ride due to coaching changes. When Lincoln Riley surprisingly accepted the USC head coach job and appeared ready to take half the Oklahoma team with him, the line moved as low as Sooners -3.5. Then Mario Cristobal found a coastal landing spot of his own with Miami, and the line has steadily moved up since. The total has dropped modestly from 62.
On the field
With both teams' best players also opting out, this is one of the most unpredictable games of a hard-to-predict bowl season. Oregon star defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux is the biggest missing name, but is his absence significant enough to make the Sooners a good bet to win by more than a touchdown?
Both teams' No. 1 quarterbacks are available, but Caleb Williams and Anthony Brown have both played badly for stretches in the season's biggest games. With total upheaval, we'll rely on the concept of "when in doubt, take the points" - especially now that we'd have to be beaten by two scores.
Pick: Oregon +7
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.