2022 NFL Draft: Revisiting odds to go No. 1 overall

Whether a bet plays out on the field or relies on the inner workings of NFL war rooms, one of the primary goals for the serious sports bettor is to beat the market to a good price. We examined the odds for the first overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft before the College Football Playoff had been decided. In our first look, Evan Neal (+1000) jumped out as an appropriate fit for the Jaguars at No. 1.

The market agreed with our logic, eventually moving Neal to the odds-on favorite around the time of Super Bowl LVI. With a month to go, there's been a massive shift back.

First overall pick odds

*Players at 100-1 or longer not listed

Are once-valuable tickets on Neal and Ekwonu are as dead as they seem? Is either worth a bet at these new numbers? There are three elements to consider when handicapping potential draft selections.

Team needs

The massive switch to Hutchinson as the prohibitive favorite was most likely done on air - oddsmakers adjusting without significant bets - once the Jaguars franchise tagged incumbent left tackle Cam Robinson for the second straight season.

Two months ago, the logic behind Neal as the most likely choice for the Jaguars stemmed from the presumed desire of head coach Doug Pederson - and the Jacksonville brass - to protect Trevor Lawrence.

The only change the Jaguars have made is adding Pro Bowl guard Brandon Scherff, and now their offensive line depth chart looks like this:

PFF rates Jacksonville's offensive line 24th in the NFL. At just 67.3 out of 100, Robinson rates as the best of a woeful bunch. Right tackle Jawaan Taylor has the worst rating at 60.7, and one would think he's replaceable. Rookie Walker Little seems to fit best at swing tackle but could fit in if the Jaguars draft a new left tackle and deal Robinson - an option for franchise-tagged players.

Even without a trade, there's still room to add Neal (or Ekwonu) and play him at right tackle for a season. Neal played right tackle for Alabama in 2020 when eventual first-round pick Alex Leatherwood started at left tackle for the Crimson Tide. The Jaguars used much of their salary-cap allotment earlier in March, but with Lawrence on a rookie contract, they can afford to pay Robinson for a season, buying time to see what they may have in Neal or Ekwonu.

Information

For all the movement on the board, the Jaguars haven't tipped their hand. In the modern era of the NFL draft, that's not only not surprising, it's also more beneficial for inflating value for a possible trade.

Despite coming to Indianapolis as fit as ever, Neal not participating at the NFL Scouting Combine meant that he missed out on creating the buzz that Hutchinson did by putting up impressive measurements.

One of the best ways for bettors to gather information is to look to prominent media mock drafts. But if the only justification for Hutchinson at No. 1 is the Jaguars bringing back a mediocre left tackle and adding a right guard, that's hardly a sure thing.

For those wishing to think less about the Michigan Wolverines star and more about adding an edge rusher in Jacksonville, Travon Walker (+600 or better) might be the flyer to take. The Georgia alumnus is more of a local product in SEC country, and his odds have shortened with less fanfare after he wasn't even on the board two months ago. That means he might be on the Jaguars' radar more than the public's.

Trends

When looking at any draft slot, one should consider the people making the picks. Jaguars GM Trent Baalke has a history of selecting defensive linemen in the first round dating back to his days with the 49ers, but that hasn't always been successful. Pederson, meanwhile, was on the Chiefs' staff in 2013 when they selected eventual Pro Bowl left tackle Eric Fisher first overall.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.