The opening weekend of bowl season had mixed results when it came to wild swings in point spreads leading up to the various kickoffs.
We saw money come in on UTSA (flipping the favorite) as it closed -3 against Troy, only to lose outright.
On Saturday, after an original move from Oregon State -6.5 to -10, Florida took money the day of the Las Vegas Bowl. That didn't work out, as the Beavers embarrassed the Gators.
The constant movement from Washington State as a 4.5-point favorite to Fresno State as almost a touchdown favorite in the Jimmy Kimmel Bowl proved to be on the money. The onetime underdog Bulldogs turned out to be more live than the game's namesake's show.
The opposite was true for both SMU - which extended to a big favorite and lost outright to BYU - and Boise State, which went from -7 to -11 but only won by three.
The big question is: What should we make of line moves from now until Christmas?
Boca Raton Bowl: Liberty vs. Toledo (-4, 53.5)
When this line was Toledo -1, a bet on the Rockets was a good idea. Now that it's extended over a field goal, things have gone too far.
Liberty finished the season in turmoil as head coach Hugh Freeze had his bags packed for Auburn, which probably resulted in the Flames' three straight losses to finish the regular season. However, this is still a team that beat Arkansas and BYU before that, and now it has some direction with the hiring of Coastal Carolina's Jamey Chadwell.
While there's a handful of opt-outs on the Liberty side, the program isn't falling apart. The Flames contained mobile quarterbacks in KJ Jefferson and Jaren Hall in games where they weren't the more talented team, so they should be able to keep it close with DeQuan Finn and Toledo. You'll be hard-pressed to talk me into any MAC team giving points this holiday season.
Pick: Liberty +4
Armed Forces Bowl: Air Force vs. Baylor (-5.5, 47.5)
While many of the other bowls have seen wild point-spread swings, the Armed Forces Bowl has been less dramatic. Baylor opened at -6.5 and the line has ticked down to -5.5.
It will need to drop further for me to advise against a wager on Air Force. The academy schools are always a good bet in a bowl game, and the Falcons can salvage a disappointing season with a win over a team from a Power 5 conference. Their only game against the upper echelon of college football barely counts as notable given that they faced Colorado.
Normally, we'd be concerned about Baylor's defense, but we just watched it give up over 30 points per game in the Big 12 this season. The Bears went to a New Year's Six bowl game after winning the conference last season, and we're supposed to believe they're fired up to defend the Falcons' hybrid-option offense in a third-tier bowl? In fact, if you wanted to put together a round-robin underdog moneyline parlay (five teams, in combinations of three), Air Force would be a good start:
| TEAMS | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Liberty/Air Force/Texas Tech/Washington/Pittsburgh | +12300 |
Pick: Air Force +5.5
Independence Bowl: Louisiana vs. Houston (-7, 57.5)
The fact that we gave a measly 5 points to Houston, a 7-point favorite, in our Bowl Confidence Pool rankings tells you all you need to know about how much we trust Dana Holgorsen in a bowl game. The Cougars head coach has shown he cares very little about second-tier bowl games, while Louisiana gets a chance to level up in the first year of a new era for the Ragin' Cajuns.
I'm not sure Louisiana has the talent to win the game outright, but if Houston really doesn't care, and the Cougars' layoff disrupts the rhythm of their Air Raid offense, then maybe the Sun Belt squad can pull off an upset. Either way, now that the line has gone from -3 on open to the next key number of -7, we'll fade the big move.
Pick: Louisiana +7
Hawaii Bowl: Middle Tennessee vs. San Diego State (-7, 49.5)
Speaking of big moves, San Diego State has gone up from -1.5 to -7, and in this case, that might be correct.
Middle Tennessee's involvement in a bowl game, and its season as a whole, is more an indictment of Miami than anything else. The Blue Raiders beat the Hurricanes for their best win of the year, with their next impressive victory coming against UTEP.
Can San Diego State stretch out a margin against Middle Tennessee? The Aztecs realized that Braxton Burmeister wasn't the answer at quarterback in September when they lost big to Arizona and Utah. With Jalen Mayden starting, SDSU became increasingly efficient, even though he turned the ball over more than anyone would like.
The Aztecs' defense will be the key in maintaining separation. Top 50 in efficiency, according to Football Outsiders, it's got an advantageous matchup against an offense that's 101st in FEI. If San Diego State can get to 25 points, that might be enough to win by more than one score.
Pick: San Diego State -7
Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.
