CFP Peach Bowl betting: Ohio State looks to go score-for-score with Georgia

It's midway through the second quarter of the Peach Bowl, and your significant other has gone from aggressively tapping their watch to trying to help you get dressed for New Year's celebrations. You sit on the couch, glued to a game that could've easily been sold as the championship matchup of the College Football Playoff through the first 10-plus weeks of the season.

Ohio State is in the rare position of underdog after being exposed in a loss to Michigan - one of its few top-tier opponents this season - in its final regular-season game. Georgia is undefeated thanks to avoiding a similar fate in its toughest game - a win over Tennessee.

No. 4 Ohio State vs. No. 1 Georgia (-6.5, 62.5)

Football Outsiders' Efficiency Ranking:

Ohio State's offense vs. Georgia's defense

We managed to cash a ticket on Caleb Williams to win the Heisman Trophy because we recognized that C.J. Stroud was a vulnerable odds-on favorite for player of the year, but that doesn't mean we don't respect the Buckeyes' offense. In fact, we faded Stroud because Ohio State's overall talent is too strong for him to get the primary credit for the team's Playoff-worthy season.

Lost in the defeat to Michigan and its ugly final score is that Ohio State led at halftime and racked up almost 500 yards against the Wolverines' fourth-ranked defense, according to Football Outsiders. The Buckeyes also managed 360 yards against Iowa's second-ranked unit this season, so they know what a high-level defense looks like.

As scary as the Bulldogs' defense can be, the SEC Championship gave Kirby Smart something he could harp on for December. LSU's Jayden Daniels and Garrett Nussmeier combined for over 500 yards passing in that contest. While some of that came when the Bulldogs already had a significant lead, the backdoor could be open late for Ohio State's explosive pass offense. The over might be a viable look given our respect for the Buckeyes' offense, and a 38-28 score would comfortably put the game over the total.

Georgia's offense vs. Ohio State's defense

While Ohio State racked up 452 yards against Penn State's fifth-ranked defense, there were red flags on the defensive side of the ball. The Buckeyes poached Jim Knowles from Oklahoma State in the offseason to tighten up that unit, but it struggled in its only three games against top-40 offenses - giving up 482, 402, and 530 yards to Penn State, Maryland, and Michigan, respectively.

I'm not sure what Knowles can do with this group in practice that'll help it get Georgia off the field regularly Saturday night. The Bulldogs' defense is feared, but even in the offense's "bad" games, it accumulated yardage totals in the mid-to-high 300s. Georgia had 481 yards in the game it came closest to losing - at Missouri.

Stetson Bennett has done it on the big stage, taking advantage of an offensive system that accentuates his skill set - accuracy and mobility. Bennett spreads the ball around but focuses on Brock Bowers and Ladd McConkey on high-leverage plays. Plus, he can hand the ball to three tailbacks who have 500-plus rushing yards and six-plus touchdowns, a potentially frightening prospect for a Buckeyes run defense that got gashed against Michigan.

How to bet the Peach Bowl

It's a win for the Big Ten conference to get two teams in the College Football Playoff, but there's a reason Georgia is undefeated after winning the title last year - the program reloads, rolling new pro-level talent through Athens on both sides of the ball. If Tennessee hadn't tripped up late or had Alabama's season gone differently on one or two plays, we'd be talking about the SEC again having two - or even three - teams in the CFP.

ESPN's SP+ ratings project a spread of -5.5, which might be why bettors were quick to take +7 with the Buckeyes. Even though I think the offense can score more points than Georgia is used to giving up, we just need the Bulldogs by a converted touchdown to win a bet. If it's anything like other Georgia games against any team not named the Crimson Tide, you may be sweat-free by the time you reach your midnight celebration destination, even if you might've missed a shirt button.

Pick: Georgia -6.5

*Note on hedging futures:

There's no hedging to be done. Both teams had short odds to win the CFP before the season, and even considering the Buckeyes' odds lengthening after the loss to Michigan, this game is what you bet on when you bought a ticket for either team to win the title. Save any potential hedge or middle attempt for either team for the CFP Championship Game.

Matt Russell is a betting writer for theScore. If there’s a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on Twitter @mrussauthentic.