CFB win totals 1st look: How an expanded Big 12 will play out

The Big 12 is introducing massive changes to keep up with the megaconferences that the SEC and Big 10 are becoming. UCF, Houston, BYU, and Cincinnati joined the Big 12 this season, while Oklahoma and Texas are leaving for the SEC next year.

For the 2023-24 season, it's the Big 14, the most teams the conference has ever had. While these moves are primarily money-driven, it's important to note the strength of the Big 12 is softening.

Despite TCU's shocking appearance in January's College Football Playoff National Championship, the Big 12 isn't considered anywhere close to as prolific as the Big 10 or SEC. And with two of the conference's better programs leaving, it's only weakening.

However, conference alignment is mostly irrelevant when determining teams' win totals for 2023. You can check out our best win total bets for the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC. Now it's time for the Big 12.

Big 12 win totals

Odds via theScore Bet

Oklahoma over 9.5 wins

A look at Oklahoma's 6-6 record last season will make anyone pause when considering placing a wager on over 9.5 wins. But the Sooners are perfectly set up for a massive jump in Year 2 under Brent Venables.

Oklahoma wasn't as bad as its record indicates last year. Part of it was luck and an inability to close games. It went 0-5 in one-score games, and its last four losses were all by three points.

With a more experienced group, some of those losses should turn into wins. The Sooners return quarterback Dillon Gabriel to lead an offense that averaged over 30 points per game last year. Continuity in the offense should lead to even greater heights.

Defense is the bigger question mark for Oklahoma. The Sooners had one of the worst defenses in the country last season, ranking 122nd in total defense. Venables used the transfer portal to add much-needed talent, and the team can only improve in that department.

Oklahoma's schedule isn't particularly challenging in a mediocre conference. It's a projected favorite in every game except against Texas. After 27 seasons in the Big 12, Oklahoma's farewell tour should be quite successful.

Pick: Over 9.5 wins -115 (playable to -130)

Cincinnati under 5.5 wins

I'm continuing the trend of fading teams with new coaches - like I did with Auburn. Cincinnati hired Scott Satterfield to replace Luke Fickell, who departed for Wisconsin. The Bearcats will also need to adapt to a new conference.

The former AAC school could eventually become competitive in a Power 5 conference, but a steep learning curve is inevitable in Cincinnati's inaugural season.

The Bearcats have just seven returning starters after multiple players hit the transfer portal in the offseason. Satterfield used the transfer portal to shore up certain positions, particularly the receivers and offensive line. It's tough to rely on a team full of transfers, though.

Cincinnati is the projected favorite in just three games this season.

A bowl appearance in its first year in the Big 12 would be a phenomenal achievement. Unfortunately, the Bearcats will likely be in for a rude welcome to the conference.

Pick: Under 5.5 wins -160

Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.