Big Ten betting preview: Can anyone compete with Michigan and Ohio State?
The Big Ten has multiple national title contenders for the second straight season, with Michigan and Ohio State looking to get back to the College Football Playoff. Both teams are well positioned to do so as the favorites to win the Big Ten.
While the Buckeyes are a slight favorite, the Wolverines have owned the conference for the past two campaigns. Ohio State never has a problem recruiting and developing talent, but it has more roster turnover and a new quarterback under center in 2023 after C.J. Stroud left for the NFL.
Devin Brown and Kyle McCord are competing to replace Stroud. Both signal-callers have limited experience. However, if we've learned anything about the Buckeyes over the years, quarterback won't be a problem.
Big Ten championship odds
Team | DIV. Odds | CONF. odds |
---|---|---|
Ohio State | +110 | +165 |
Michigan | +120 | +170 |
Penn State | +450 | +600 |
Maryland | +5000 | +8000 |
Michigan State | +10000 | +15000 |
Rutgers | +14000 | +20000 |
Indiana | +30000 | +50000 |
Wisconsin | +130 | +750 |
Iowa | +240 | +1200 |
Illinois | +600 | +3000 |
Minnesota | +650 | +4000 |
Nebraska | +1400 | +6000 |
Purdue | +2000 | +10000 |
Northwestern | +10000 | +30000 |
The three favorites to win the conference all play in the East, outlining the imbalance between the divisions. Wisconsin's odds of winning the West are incredibly shorter than to win the conference. If the Badgers got to the Big Ten championship, they'd be big underdogs against Michigan, Ohio State, or Penn State.
Maryland is a sleeper in the conference, and coach Mike Locksley proclaimed the team is ready to compete for Big Ten titles. But with the three-headed snake of Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State on the schedule, there's a better chance of someone spotting Santa Claus than Maryland being in the Big Ten championship in December.
Unlike the East, the West, as usual, is wide open. A different team has come out of the West in each of the last four seasons. Last year it was Purdue. While Wisconsin is the favorite to win the division, Iowa, Illinois, and even Minnesota are all projected bowl teams and contenders in the West.
Big Ten team ratings
Using regular-season win totals and how the strength of the conference affects their schedule, Matt Russell, theScore's lead betting analyst, has estimated how the betting market rates each team on a national level. Using a rating system allows you to project point spreads and track any change in how the market has reacted to recent games.
Team | Win Total (O/U) | Rating (/100) |
---|---|---|
Ohio State | 10.5 (-110/-120) | 85 |
Michigan | 10.5 (-125/-105) | 86 |
Penn State | 9.5 (-145/+115) | 81 |
Wisconsin | 8.5 (-135/+105) | 78 |
Iowa | 8.5 (+110/-140) | 74 |
Maryland | 7.5 (+100/-130) | 60 |
Minnesota | 7.5 (+140/-180) | 59 |
Illinois | 6.5 (-115/-105) | 61 |
Nebraska | 6.5 (+115/-145) | 55 |
Purdue | 5.5 (+135/-170) | 47 |
Michigan State | 5.5 (+140/-170) | 47 |
Indiana | 3.5 (-150/ +120) | 35 |
Rutgers | 3.5 (-188/+152) | 43 |
Northwestern | 3 (-110/-110) | 27 |
Michigan and Ohio State are a combined 42-2 in the regular season over the last two campaigns against all opponents except each other. It's certainly not a shock their win totals are at 10.5. However, the programs play each other this campaign, giving them little room for error throughout the regular season.
Penn State plays Michigan and Ohio State but is a projected favorite by at least nine points in every other game. Maryland is soundly the fourth-best team in the Big Ten East. The Terps have increased their win total in each of the past four seasons. With Taulia Tagovailoa returning at quarterback, another jump is imminent.
Iowa has been a top-20 scoring defense over the last nine seasons. After being virtually non-existent the past two campaigns, the offense should show signs of life this year with the addition of Michigan transfer quarterback Cade McNamara. The days of hammering the under on Iowa's team total are over.
Nebraska is bound to take a leap in Matt Rhule's first season in charge after posting a disastrous 4-8 record last campaign.
Best bets
theScore betting writer Sam Oshtry looked at regular-season win totals earlier this summer. Here are his best bets:
Team | Bet |
---|---|
Penn State | Over 9.5 -145 |
Wisconsin | Over 8.5 -135 |
Maryland | Over 7 -130 |
Northwestern | Under 3.5 -160 |
Let's look at some additional wagers worth considering for the Big Ten this season.
Wisconsin to win the Big Ten West +130
Luke Fickell's resurgence of Wisconsin football is in full effect in Year 1. Adding Tanner Mordecai at quarterback, along with a slew of transfers, brings potency to an offense that's been one-dimensional for years. While Iowa is a worthy challenger in the West, Wisconsin plays the Hawkeyes at home and is a projected 5-point favorite. I don't see the Badgers having too much trouble with the rest of the West, so I'll take them at plus-odds now instead of waiting until they're favored against Iowa in Week 6.
Sept. 23: Iowa @ Penn State (-12)
Iowa avoids Ohio State and Michigan, so Penn State is its toughest test of the season. The Hawkeyes have won the last two meetings against the Nittany Lions, which should create an unruly environment for Penn State's "white out" game in State College. With Penn State's expected dominant start to the season, this line will only climb. Now is the time to grab it.
Nov. 11: Michigan @ Penn State (+2)
Michigan was favored by a touchdown when these two teams met in Ann Arbor last season. This shortened spread shows how Penn State is closing the gap among the best in the Big Ten East - and the impact of playing at home. The Nittany Lions have a better chance of beating the Wolverines at home than Ohio State on the road as double-digit underdogs. James Franklin is 0-10 against top-10 teams over the last six years. If Penn State is ever going to scale the Big Ten mountain, it'll happen against Michigan at home.
Nov. 26: Ohio State @ Michigan (-2.5)
Forget the turkey and family time. Michigan versus Ohio State is the best part of Thanksgiving weekend. Jim Harbaugh is 2-1 against Ryan Day, including two straight resounding victories. The Buckeyes will surely look for revenge but have to travel to Ann Arbor in a game that'll likely decide the Big Ten East champion for the third consecutive year.
Sam Oshtry is a sports betting writer at theScore. You can follow him on Twitter @soshtry for more betting coverage.
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