CFB Group of 5 betting preview: Running down a dream

The top teams that were proud members of the Group of 5 conferences in 2022 have accomplished their off-the-field goal - to no longer be a member of the Football Bowl Subdivision's bottom half.

Houston, Central Florida, and Cincinnati - teams that accomplished the big on-field goal of making the New Year's Six - found their way into the Big 12. That's left other teams salivating at the chance to get adopted into the burning wreckage of the Pac-12. With no clear favorite left among those hoping for a New Year's Six berth, each G5 conference feels as wide open as ever.

Along with their conference odds, we'll include estimated market ratings to give context to where each team stands nationally.

American Athletic Conference odds

Memphis (7.5, -150) has a slightly higher win total projection than Florida Atlantic (7.5 at +125), but the Tigers' schedule is so easy that their rating has to be pulled down. This is confirmed by the fact they're the fifth choice to win the AAC despite having the third-highest regular-season win total.

Best bets

Florida Atlantic: Over 7.5 wins (+125)
Temple: Over 5.5 wins (-105)
UAB: Under 5 wins (-120)

There's no singular type of 'new coach/new school' situation in college football.

One good version, like in Boca Raton, occurs when a solid FBS coach with a strong track record of success takes over a program with a solid base of returning talent. Tom Herman didn't reach the lofty expectations of Longhorn nation, but he'll bring energy to FAU as an upgrade on Willie Taggert.

Another version is when a head coach steps up in weight class and has to rebuild the talent pool while filling big shoes. Thanks to his name, Trent Dilfer makes the rare jump from high school to FBS head coach. But he didn't bring experienced coordinators with him. It would be shocking if he were an upgrade from Bill Clark, who took UAB to five bowl games in nine years.

Stan Drayton was a surprising hire at Temple before last season, and a 3-9 record in 2022 doesn't usually inspire optimism. However, the Owls eventually gave E.J. Warner (son of Kurt) free reign to cook and moved their best athlete, D'Wan Mathis, from quarterback to wide receiver. They've got two wins in their non-conference schedule, and their four road conference games come against the bottom half of the American. Even if there isn't an upset as a home underdog looming, Temple can get to bowl eligibility.

Conference USA odds

Western Kentucky is the favorite, but Liberty has a higher season win total. That's a function of the Hilltoppers having a date with Ohio State, while the Flames don't face a Power 5 team of any kind. Jacksonville State and Sam Houston State make their FBS debuts and, as a result, aren't eligible for postseason play.

Best bet

Liberty over 9 wins (-110)

Jamey Chadwell comes over from Coastal Carolina to replace Hugh Freeze. Still, any adjustment for Liberty should be felt by its opponents with how tricky the coach's offense can be, especially if Kaidon Salter is ready to be the unquestioned starter in his second season of play. With a soft non-conference schedule, there isn't a game on the slate the Flames can't win. They'll be slight underdogs when they visit Western Kentucky, so we'll pass on a conference-winning futures ticket, opting for the win total over instead.

Mid-American Conference odds

Eastern Michigan's toughest non-conference game is against Minnesota, and it doesn't play Ohio, so its win total of 6.5 (-170 to the over) is less impressive than similarly lined teams Buffalo and Miami (OH).

Best Bet

Central Michigan to win MAC (+1600)

While the MAC might not be the worst conference this season, it should still be as volatile as ever. We're looking to back top-end raw talent in the lower leagues - where the favorites are vulnerable week-to-week. Central Michigan has that in quarterback Bert Emanuel Jr. The Chippewas offense took a step back last year until Emanuel burst onto the scene with 466 rushing yards in the season's final three games. The schedule is tough - with three Power 5 losses coming in the non-conference - but when looking for a longshot in the MAC, the Chips fit the bill as having a high ceiling.

Mountain West odds

The quality of the Mountain West has plummeted from even a few years ago, as it's barely ahead of the MAC in top-to-bottom quality. San Diego State is just -3 as the host in their Week 0 matchup with Ohio, showing that the matchup is closer than we might've thought.

Best Bet

Hawaii: Under 3.5 wins (-105)

Whether it's their Week 0 game as 18-point underdogs at Vanderbilt or Week 1's line of Stanford -9, both spreads suggest that Hawaii is worse than their rating of 25. If that's the case, then taking them under on 3.5 regular-season victories should be an easy winner. A look at the Rainbow Warriors' schedule doesn't dissuade, as they're on the road for potentially winnable games with New Mexico and Nevada.

Sun Belt odds

While the Sun Belt's place here is alphabetical, we can make the case that we've saved the best for last, as half the league rates above average. That said, market analysis is about information, and eight Sun Belt teams don't play FBS games until Week 2. That means we don't have spread-centric data points to hone these ratings further.

Best bet

Arkansas State: Under 4.5 wins (+100)

Call this a bet against the Butch Jones regime, but it's more about the rest of the Sun Belt constantly improving. And it's hard to see that with Arkansas State. There might be two wins available in games with Stony Brook and UMass. However, the Red Wolves need to beat Southern Miss, Texas State, and Louisiana-Monroe on the road to go over on an otherwise tough schedule. For a team that appears to lack upside - no new defensive coordinator and a shaky quarterback situation - we'll rely on the best G5 conference to keep Arkansas State down.

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.