CFB Week 3 best bets: Taking points in the Saturday 7

If you're into closing line value, Week 2's "Saturday Seven" was your kind of thing. But If you were hoping that would translate to wins - with the market moving our way with North Carolina State, Temple, and Arkansas State (along with ATS winners Baylor and Rice) - Saturday wasn't for you. Add in some brutal spread beats with good bets on Tulane and Texas Tech in the big games, and we get the challenge of digging it out of the dirt now that we're 12-15.

We're looking for seven games in which the point spread might be off each week. That'll provide a bet on the underdog against the spread the vast majority of the time.

Iowa State @ Ohio (+3, 44.5)

After a tumultuous offseason, Iowa State's campaign started with a pair of first-quarter scores against Northern Iowa. However, a pick-6 and a 21-yard drive after a long punt return aren't reliable methods of creating offense against good FBS teams, and getting out-gained by the Panthers was probably a harbinger of things to come for last week's Cy-Hawk. Another sub-300-yard performance leaves us wondering why the Cyclones shouldn't be downgraded from their preseason rating.

Ohio might be 3-0 if it hadn't lost Kurtis Rourke during the opener at San Diego State. Even with no change to either team's rating, I still have a fair line of Iowa State -2.5. Getting three points is too good to pass up when it could be argued that there's less between these two teams than first thought.

Pick: Ohio (+3)

East Carolina @ Appalachian State (-9, 48.5)

Appalachian State's been the subject of fading in this space the last couple of years because, truthfully, we didn't like the program's quarterback - Chase Brice. This year, first-year starter and junior QB Joey Aguilar actually had a better QBR in pushing North Carolina to overtime than Spencer Rattler posted against the Tar Heels the week before. East Carolina doesn't seem to have an answer between Mason Garcia, who's more of a runner than a thrower, and Alex Flinn, who does neither particularly well.

Pick: Appalachian State (-9)

Georgia State @ Charlotte (+7.5, 53.5)

Staying in the Sun Belt, the top of the conference has largely disappointed, with South Alabama, Troy, and Louisiana all struggling to prove their preseason rating. Maybe dual-threat QB Darren Grainger is single-handedly taking Georgia State into that echelon, but this is the team's first road trip. Charlotte actually had the lead at halftime at Maryland last week before being overwhelmed by Big Ten talent. Let's guess that the 49ers are better than the 28/100 team rating its season win total suggested, which means this line should be under a touchdown.

Pick: Charlotte (+7.5)

Western Kentucky @ No. 6 Ohio State (-29, 63.5)

Ohio State head coach Ryan Day announced his QB1 this week with the enthusiasm of a hostage video. Kyle McCord gets the nod as the Buckeyes look to find more rhythm offensively than they had against Indiana and Youngstown State. But just because you're hoping for more doesn't mean you get more.

With a 52/100 team rating, Western Kentucky is by far the best opponent Ohio State will have faced before going to Notre Dame next week. Senior quarterback Austin Reed can keep the Hilltoppers within shouting distance with the backdoor wide open if the Buckeyes get a big lead.

Pick: Western Kentucky (+29)

Vanderbilt @ UNLV (+4, 60.5)

UNLV isn't the first and won't be the last team to get bludgeoned by Michigan, and Doug Brumfield was always going to have trouble finding yardage with either his arm or legs. Seeing the Runnin' Rebels' rating drop and the line pushing out to Michigan -38 couldn't be that surprising.

It would take an even bigger drop in UNLV's rating to legitimize the line going from -2 on open to -4 now considering Vanderbilt has done nothing but disappoint against FBS foes this season in relation to the spread. The Commodores barely beat Hawaii and got hosed by Wake Forest.

Pick: UNLV (+4)

Wyoming @ No. 4 Texas (-29.5, 48.5)

This line is correct based on team ratings, where neither Wyoming nor Texas has seen a change in how they're viewed in the market. However, there's a chance the Longhorns aren't locked in for a visit from the Cowboys after getting a season-defining win at Alabama last week and the conference schedule starting next week. Wyoming is well-coached and can grind out first downs like it did against another good Big 12 team when it beat Texas Tech.

Pick: Wyoming (+29.5)

TCU @ Houston (+7.5, 64.5)

Week 1 victims at the hands of Coach Prime, TCU avoided more potential scrutiny by beating up on FCS' Nicholls State last week. But as much as everyone's excited about Colorado, I have just as many questions about the Horned Frogs' defense. That's something that the battle-tested Cougars can take advantage of with their dual-threat quarterback Donovan Smith.

Pick: Houston (+7.5)

Matt Russell is the lead betting analyst for theScore. If there's a bad beat to be had, Matt will find it. Find him on social media @mrussauthentic.